One of the most important consequences of the Russian victory yesterday in Avdiivka is that the front line, in moving west, is moving away from Donetsk city whose civilian population has been the subject of Ukrainian shelling from the time of the original defeat of the Ukrainian army by Donetsk militia (backed, possibly, with Russian arms) in 2015. The fate of Donetsk City, in particular, and that of the Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics weighed heavily on Putin’s mind with the Ukrainian and Western reneging of the 2015 Minsk accords, Western arming of Ukraine for the purpose of building anti-Russian fortifications along the borders of the people’s republics since that time, the constant killing by Kiev of its own people in the people’s republics and the depriving of these citizens of their pensions and social security benefits, a financial privation that Russia stepped in to help correct.
Dima attributes Russian success primarily to its achievement of a monopoly over the air. Russia has been dropping dozens of FAB 500 glide bombs using Su34s and Su35s for days now. Similar success will enable Russia to push Ukrainians back and to advance on many other parts of the combat line. Without better Ukrainian air defense Russia will move quickly to the Dnieper river.
Zelenskiy has already put in motion investigations of claims that Ukraine’s Third Assault Brigade (the former Azov batallion) failed to follow orders. Many have decided to occupy the underground levels of the Coke-plant at the Chemical factory in the northwest, in a bizarre repetition of their experience in Mariupol in April 2022 only weeks after the West and Ukraine reneged on the peace agreements that were in the process of either being signed or at least of evolution beyond the signatures on first drafts. At that time many Ukrainian forces occupied the underground levels of the Azovstal Iron and Steel Works, only to die or to be forced out under Russian pressure and then taken prisoner (over 60 were later to perish in a plane shot down by Ukraine just a couple of weeks ago, as they were being transported between centers for the purpose of a POW exchange). Zelenskiy also wants to investigate how it was that small groups of Ukrainian soldiers in Avdiivka took the initiative to enter into local negotiations with Russian forces or were represented in such negotiations by Ukrainian officers in nearby Orlivka. These encounters took place in the confusion of battle, when communications were fragile, at best, and when groups of Ukrainian soldiers at various points were finding themselves surrounded on all sides by Russian forces.
The point is that these groups either failed or were physically unable to secure the approval of either General Syrsky nor of the President’s office for such negotiations. The worry for Zelenskiy, surely, is that given this experience in Avdiivka, many other elements of the army along other beseiged points of the combat line may take upon themselves similar privileges.
Altogether, Russia’s MOD reports, Russia gained almost 32 square miles as a result of its Avdiivka offensive. In the 24 hour period up to midday February 18 it seems, according to the Russian MOD, that Ukraine suffered 1,500 losses of men and equipment. 500 POWs were captured. Of great symbolic significance is the survival of the orthodox church in the south of Avdiivka. Both sides appear to have avoided its destruction offering some light, suggests Dima of the Military Summary channels, on the end of the tunnel.
Russian forces have moved west to Lasochkyne and some reports would have having already entered the settlement, others that they have already taken it in its entirety. Of even greater significance are reports of more intense Russian bombing and shelling of the settlement of Pobieda further south, as well as the taking of tree lines south of Pobieda in the direction of Novomykhailivka (and, to the west, of Paraskoviika and Kostiantynivka), which will very likely accelerate Russia’s taking of Novomykhailivka in its entirety.
Elsewhere, Russia is accelerating its attacks on Robotyne and Verbove and on Ukrainian positions between these settlements (of which Robotyne had previously fallen to Ukraine while Russia retained Verbove) which, given reports some weeks ago that Ukrainians were slowly retreating from this salient to Novodanylinka and Orikhiv to the north, in part because of their redeployment to Avdiivka, should be relatively straight forward. Russia may again penetrate Robotyne tomorrow. Evacuations are under way from Orkihiv, although local residents are unhappy with the arrangements. Dima predicts a considerable expansion of Russian-held territory to the west of Robotyne, and as far north as Komyshuvakha, employing some of the 60,000 Russian servicemen already in this zone. He gives the process two month.
West of Bakhmut, Russian forces are already entering Ivanivske. And there are further advances in Lyman and Kupiansk areas (with considerable Russian bombing of Kupyansk in preparation for a ground operation).