De-Escalation: A Therapeutic Pause

Palestine

Netanyahu has recently said that Israel will not cease its war against Hamas, even if a ceasefire agreement is reached. In other words, there will be no peace. It is not wanted by Israel (despite Blinken’s absurd attempts to persuade the world that the ceasefire resolution that he recently tabled at the UNSC was actually Israel’s initiative) and of course Hamas will not consider anything short of a permanent ceasefire. Then again, it is difficult to imagine any circumstances at this time in which Hamas would trust anything that Israel or the US has to say. Much the same applies to the absence of any logic under which Russia would want to trust anything that the US or Ukraine has to say about anything.

The US has been counselling Israel against its current plans to invade southern Lebanon. Israel is no more able to defeat Hezbollah than it is able to defeat Hamas. Hezbollah’s blanket drone coverage of northern Israel is going to be a major impediment to Israel’s ability to move on southern Lebanon with the element of surprise, or to contemplate a return of the evacuated Israeli population back into northern Israel.

Hezbollah has an astonishing array of missiles. Max Blumenthal, earlier today, told Judge Napolitano that of at least fortry missiles fired by Hezbollah on Israel in the past 24 hours, half of them got through. So much for the over-hyped Israeli “iron dome,” another Western wonder weapon to bite the dust.

In the meantime, it is reported that Israel is resorting to calling up reservists for the second or third time, and that some of them are simply ignoring or resisting the call. John Mearsheimer told Judge Napolitano earlier today that while of course we should worry that an Israeli invasion of the Lebanon will invite or provoke direct Iranian engagement, the reality is that Iran does not consider that it is in its interest to go face-to-face with Israel (the Iranian economy is doing very well right now) and that the US does not want to go face-to-face with Iran (the US barely has sufficient weapons left to do this anyway).

This, therefore,suggests that Netanyahu’s likely goal of forcing the USA into an outright war with Iran so as to further boost Israeli’s regional dominance, is probably not going to happen. And when Israel, or IF Israel, works that out, then Israel will probably call off its invasion of southern Lebanon. Let us hope so.

It is particularly shocking that the wife of Sheldon Adelson, Miriam Adelson, is supporting the Trump presidential campaign to the tune of $100 million and expects in return that Trump will lend his support to an Israeli annexation of the West Bank, something which, were it to turn into a proximate reality, would again return us to the likelihood of a Middle East war, one in which Israel will likely lose if it has not already lost the war in Gaza. It is now an impoverished country; it is a deeply,scorchingly, discredited country; it is a polarized country; it is a country whose army now seems far from being invincible; it is a country whose technology is being left in the dust, astonishing though it may seem, by the Houthis (!), who even have hypersonic missiles at their disposal (to which I expect Russia would like to add some Iskanders and Kinshals if the West persists in allowing “Ukraine” to target Russian assets in Russia) and which have successfully upended Israeli trade by blockading the Red sea. Israel is a permanently paranoic country. Israel is a country whose greatest strength is its most pathetic reality namely, the ability to corrupt US politicians through AIPAC, the ADL and other channels whose purpose is send US aid to Israel back to the US, in the form of electoral bribes and threats and more money for the US weapons manufacturers and for the entire US military-industrial complex. Win or lose a war - and the US nearly always loses them - the military-industrial complex (better still, the MICIMATT) wins big time. The rest of us are its victims.

Oh, and about Miriam: Blumenthal today notes how brazen the pro-Israeli US billionaire sponsorship class has become, as demonstrated in their recent attacks to take down University Presidents who are insufficiently ruthless in their bludgeoning of peaceful students protesting Israel's ongoing genocide of Palestinians (now in the range of 38,000 plus). He puts this down to the desperation of the Netanyahu regime that each and every stop must now be pulled.

The Battlefields

Over the past 24 to 48 hours there have been significant Russian strikes on Ukrainian airfields, one in Western Ukraine (Starokostiantyniv) and another west of the Russian border at Krasnopillia. Despite Ukrainian claims to have shot down virtually all of the missiles and drones involved, the Russian MoD seems confident that “all assigned targets were achieved.” The missiles included Kinzhals, Daggers and Calibers. The targeted airfields were likely those expected to receive Western-donated F-16s in the very near future or to have been party in some way to recent Ukrainian attacks on the Russian mainland. There have also been Ukrainian attacks on Crimea and a facility of the quondam Soviet space program, possibly inoperational, was said to be have been hit, although satellite evidence suggests that only the surrounding perimeter was impacted, not the facility itself.

In Kharkiv, Russia has apparently opened up a new front, west of the current fighting around Lyptsi and Vovchansk, near the village of Sotnytskyi Kozahok, which, if taken, could pave the way for a Russian advance on Zolochiv to the south. In the area of Nekhoteyevka, Ukraine has been bombing Russian positions, using French “Hammers”. In Hlyboke area, Russia continues to repel Ukrainian counter-attacks. In the northern sector of Vovchanask it appears that Russia has control over most of the Aggregate Plant and that it has penetrated the “citadel” (high rise) area. Ukraine maintains a concentration of force to the east of Vovchansk, in the direction of Tyke, from which it can deploy fresh forces to fight in Vovchansk. Russia can see these manouvers and react accordingly. Ukraine has been attacking engineering equipment used by Russia in the construction of layered fortifications between and around Vovchansk, in and around Pletenivka, Hatyshche and Ohirtseve. The loss of 15 such engineering machines that Ukraine claims to have destroyed is totally insufficient to hamper Russian activity in this regard.

In northern Kupyansk, Russia continues its artillery fire on Pishchane and Stepove Novoselivka and Kurylivka, in a softening up operation likely to be followed by a ground offensive in the near future. In southern Kupyansk, it is reported that Terny - which a few weeks ago seemed like a very promising destination for a Russian advance - has returned to Ukrainian control. In Siversk area, Russia confirms that it is in control of Vyimka and may soon move northwards from there, while a little to the south, Russian now controls 90% of Rozdolivka, positioning it for further advances on neighboring Fedorivka and Pereizne, with a view to then advancing on Siversk itself.

There is little sense to be made of Chasiv Yar today, other than that clashes continue and that Russia still has a great deal more to accomplish before it can lay claim to victory over this settlement. Further south there are more promising signs of Russian advance in the area of Druzhba, on route to Toretsk. Russia has penetrated the first few houses of the nearby settlement of Niu-York.

In Avdiivka area, heavy clashes continue in Sokil. In the district around Novoselivka Persha, Russia continues to destroy advanced Western armored vehicles. Dima of the Military Summary channel opines that the rate of destruction of Western vehicles in this area is twice as great as the rate of such degradation in Robotyne at the height of clashes there many months ago.

After many months of fighting, Russia continues to make agonizingly slow advances in the northern part of Krasnohoriivka, and now says that it is in complete control of the eastern sector of the northern district. There is intense Russian shelling going on against a major concentration of Ukrainian troops in Kurakhove. Russia continues to make modest territorial gains south of Kostyantynivka and its troops are within 2.5 kilometers of taking the main supply route to Vuhledar. To the east of Vuhledar, Russian shelling of Prechystrivka is intended to degrade routes used for troop deployments between Vuhledar to the east and Zolota Nyva and Velyka Novosilka to the West. This area lies north of Urozhaine, the southern sections of which are under Russian control and the northern sections of which are being abandoned by Ukrainian forces.

Note that Dima is saying that there are many surrenders of Ukrainian troops along the combat lines these days, and that Russia is amassing a whole new tranche of information tips as a result. In Kherson, Russia continues to bomb Pistykhatky and recently dropped a FAB 3000 on a military headquarters in Lyove, on the Ukrainian side of the Dnieper.

In Crimea it is speculated that the recent shooting down of one or two US Global Hawks surveillance drones may be the reason why British reconnaissance aircraft have been spotted in the Sevastopol area.

Negotiations and Deescalation

Zelenskiy is recently reported to have said that “we should put a settlement plan on the table within a few months.” I guess nothing could be less promising than the settlement plan that Zelenskiy has been touting at the Swiss “Peace” Conference lately, so perhaps we can be very mildly hopeful. Remarks of one of his advisers to the effect that enemy beachgoers in occupied territory are legitimate targets - pretty much confirming that “Ukrainian” targeting of an ATACMS missile on a Sevastopol beach last Sunday was intentional - will not enhance Russia’s mood for peace talks.

But the incident does appear to be behind a call by Lloyd Austin, US Defense Secretary, to Russian Defense Secretary Andrei Belousov, in which the two sides confirmed the usefulness of establishing communication. That application of such fundamental truisms - that the absence of communication channels is both dangerous and counter-productive, especially when we are talking about nuclear powers - should come as some sort of amazin intellectual breakthrough, is perturbing, to say the least.

Some see in this the hope of de-escalation. Alexander Mercouris in his broadcast today from Germany, detects a modest deceleration in anti-Russian rhetoric from the more fanatical elements of the German political establishment, perhaps taking its cues from ominous signs in the recent EU elections of a public opinion deeply tired of Ukraine war talk. French President Macron too, seems humbler in the face of an election win in a few days’ time by Marie Le Pen, and having more or less convinced the world that French troops were already in Ukraine or in the process of getting there, is now saying that there will be no French troops being sent to Ukraine any time soon. It is highly unlikely, if not impossible, that there are no French troops currently in Ukraine, whether in French uniform or as “volunteers,” but the French President’s assertion is clearly de-escalatory. It also mirrors the latest White House announcements to the effect that there is no likelihood whatsoever of US troops being sent to Ukraine, and that there will be no further financial packages for Ukraine this side of the election.

Multipolarity

In the wake of a failed military coup against President Arce of Bolivia, who has been moving closer to both Russia and China - measures that can scarcely be disassociated from Bolivia’s importance as one of the world’s most important sources of lithium - it is especially interesting to learn that Bolivia is keen to join the BRICS. Given the very large number of countries now moving in this direction it is pertinent to note that Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov is recommending that the pace of expansion of BRICS membership be moderated in order to allow more time for the rationalization of the structures of BRICS and its proposed new sanctions-defying, digital, trading currency (something that Indian President Modi is also supporting). But Lavrov is also suggesting that a category of “associate” membership be created, doubtless as some kind of transitional status to full membership.