Critically Linking NATO'S War (83) September 30 2022: Russia as Civilizational State and West as Predator

Oct 01, 2022

News Update

Battlefields

Mercouris (Mercouris 09. 30. 2022) today notes that the Ukrainian Lyman offensive pits some 6,000 Ukrainian men against 500 Russian irregulars. So far, this Russian garrison has held off the Ukrainian force for some two weeks. It has helped put a stop to the Ukrainian Kharkiv offensive. But both sides are relatively small. This indicates that Lyman is actually not so important strategically. Lyman was captured by Donbass militia in May around the same time as Russian victories in Severodonetsk.

Russian blogger reports covering this episode stem largely from two such sources: Ribar and the other is War Gonzo. They are taking information from a specific source in Lyman who tends to exaggerate its strategic importance. Putin Donbass critic Igor Girkin (aka Strelkov) concurs that Lyman is not especially important and is asking why Lyman has not already been evacuated. There is a strong likelihood that forces of the Russian 58th (?) army are now headed for Lyman and they may hold on to Lyman and push back the Ukrainian forces.

A war is not best judged by which battle is getting the most media attention. By far the most important battle is in Bakhmut, in contrast to which Lyman is a sideshow that is running out of significance. We are now only two to three weeks from the Autumn rains which will make any Ukrainian offensives in Donbass most impractical.

Lyman is not important in itself, in Mercouris’ view. It is the obsession with which Ukraine has sought its capture. A few weeks ago it was an obvious target since it obstructed further Ukrainian advance, but now the practical realities have reduced Lyman’s importance. Perhaps the reasons behind Ukrainian tactics, as usual, is the matter of PR, which is directly tied to receipt of western cash and arms. Ukraine has diverted troops to Lyman from more important areas, like Bakhmut, and also from Seversk. This looks like a mistaken approach. Earlier today the Ukrainian command gave orders that Lyman be encircled by the end of today, Friday, at any cost.

Mercouris considers that the strategic situation is in fact turning decisively against Ukraine.

The flow of weapons into Ukraine appears to have come to a stop, despite promises of billions in aid. E.g., the promised HIMARS don’t actually exist but have to be built, which is why the Pentagon has made an order for these to be supplied to Ukraine in an unstated period of time. Ukraine received many weapons earlier in the summer and much of this is now destroyed and what remains are old Soviet tanks, fighter jets, armored personnel carriers etc. supplied to Ukraine by former Soviet countries.

Russian reports suggest that large numbers of M777s have been destroyed as well as large numbers of HIMARS. Ukraine is once again running out of weapons. The West itself is running short of stock. Ukraine’s manpower pool of 400,000 men at the start of September when it heavily outnumbered Russian and allied forces is now depleted and Ukrainian officials have said there is no plan for further mobilizations, presumably because the pool has evaporated.

What forces remain will be pitched against an extended Russia that is prepared to deploy hundreds of thousands of men and is gearing up for offensives. And the West is entering a period of economic crisis.

Ukraine should have agreed to negotiations in March; there will be no returning to that deal now; it will have to lose more territory. It looks like Ukraine lost another chance to negotiate in the immediate aftermath of the Kharkiv offensive. They should still sit down and talk, before they lose more territory, including Kharkiv and Odessa, as Russia expands over the next few months. Continuing with the war now, whatever the disadvantages of peace, will without doubt result in the loss of many, many more Ukrainian lives for no particularly good reason. If that means a smaller Ukraine, we are where we are. It is unlikely that Zelenskiy is capable of taking this step. Ukrainians should now be thinking of changing their leader.

Putin’s Speech

Russia, the Averted European Colony

In Putin’s speech today he for the first time clearly differentiated Russia from Europe, accusing European nations of a colonialist mentality developed since the middle ages in order to enrich themselves at the expense of all the nations they subjugated, and to achieve global dominance. Putin claimed this was the fate earmarked for Russia too, but Russia avoided becoming a European colony because of its success in creating its own powerful, centralized state and was able to withstand continuing European aggression up until the 1980s when, for a certain period of time, there was relative harmony. But, in the 1990s, Russia did become a colony, not of Europe but a colony of the US - aided and abetted by Europe.

Russia, the former US Colony

Putin is here telling the global South and Russians themselves not to think of Russia as part of the European colonialist project but as its survivors. He is telling China, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America that Russia is more like them than like Europe. Russians too are victims of colonial aggression.

Russia, the Civilizational State

He spoke of Russia as a civilizational state, implying that Russia has a distinctive civilization which is by definition different to the West. He went into considerable detail as to how the West is trying to cancel Russian culture and went out of his way to talk about the social distinctions and life style issues etc., that make Russia different from the West and which make Russia much more comparable to the Global South.

No Russian leader since Peter the Great has talked in this way.

This is a point of view that will likely be shared by the critical mass of the Russian people. No Soviet Communist leader ever spoke in this way: people like Lenin saw Russia as a leader that would lead Europe to Communism. Stalin saw the Soviet Union as belonging to a cultural world that included the West, and subsequent Soviet leaders were similarly inclined.

Losing Russia, Escalating Economic Crisis

Under Putin, Europe has now lost Russia and it will be the poorer for it. Further on in his speech Putin claims that the only way that Europe could resolve its inflationary economic crisis of the 1980s and early 1990s was by pillaging Russian natural resources through the 1990s. One of the reasons why inflation has become a problem for Europe again is because Europe no longer has easy access to Russian resources. One of the major reasons why the west today is so aggressive towards Russian is because the predatory west has far more profound economic problems than in the 1990s, and believes that these can only be resolved by gaining access to Russian resources.

In addition we see that the west is becoming predatory towards itself: the US has taken a predatory approach to Europe and Putin is scathing of the pusillanimity of European political leadership. He straight out alleged that it was the “Anglo-Saxons” (US and UK) who carried out the sabotage on Nord Stream 1 and 2