Russia Ready To Strike the West, Possibly With Nukes, Outside of Ukraine
France in Ukraine
Over the past 48 hours we have had reports of French intentions to send between 3,000 and 6,000 troops to Ukraine, and a report that Hakeem Jeffries, the leader of the Democratic Party in the House of Representatives, has said that the US will have to send troops if Russia beaks through Ukrainian lines. Which lines exactly are being referred to is a mystery as it seems to me Russia is frequently pushing against and breaking through various Ukrainian fortifications. If all other NATO troops were to send in detachments we could easily be talking about a combined force of over 100,000 troops, many of whom are already on Russia’s borders because of an ongoing anti-Russian exercise. Such a force, poorly equipped, could easily be countermanded by Russia.
The issue of a French presence in Ukraine is a tricky one and I note that during the day today the French ministry of defense said that French Foreign legionnaires had not been sent to Ukraine.
There is no doubt in my mind that the French have had a military presence in Ukraine for many months, and that on at least two occasions French forces, whether or not in French army uniform, or French Foreign Legion uniform, some other uniform or no uniform, whether “regular” or mercenary, have taken large losses. Most recently they may have lost lives (the number 7 is being used) in Slaviansk over the weekend. The issue is not whether the French have already posted troops in Ukraine, the issue is whether there will be a marked uptick in the French presence. There is also confusion as to whether this uptick has already happened, is happening or will happen and exactly how many troops are so far involved. At the very least there are a couple of hundred there already.
There is clearly some unhappiness in NATO with Macron’s less than adequately consulted decisions or statements about decisions that he may or may not make: the Italian Defense Minister has averred that Italy has no interest in sending troops or weapons to Ukraine. Germany is probably very reluctant. We can be sure that Poland will (even if the Polish President today, in reaction to Russian nuclear comments, says that Poland will not!), and that Britain will and that some of the Baltic countries will. The US will doubtless keep supplying advisors and contractors of every kind but some commentators suspect that all that Biden wants to do for now is to keep the pot simmering on the back burner until after he is returned as President, as he hopes, after November, before then escalating his involvement in Ukraine exponentially.
Given that the US and the French are already in Ukraine, we can be certain that the British, and the Poles and probably several other NATO countries are already in Ukraine. Scott Ritter says several hundred; I think many thousand.
Readying Tacticial Nuclear Weapons for Strikes On or Outside Ukraine
Via the Southern Military District of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Defense of Russia is commencing an exercise of its nuclear-equipped forces (non-strategic nuclear forces). NATO has responded in similar vein. In the event of a major NATO aggression or clear threat of one I believe Russia will strike at the NATO forces with relatively low grade, low radiation missiles (tactical weapons), and NATO logistics centers in Romania and Poland, with its heavier nuclear weapons on full alert ready for Armageddon. In an ensuing tit for tat nobody knows who or at what point the exchange will cease. We have now entered the stage of the conflict in which the chances of an accidental nuclear war are at their highest (there were egregious examples at the time of nuclear crisis of October 1962), never mind the dangers of an intentional use of nuclear weapons. Incidentally, Russia has said that it will regard F16s as nuclear weapon carriers. Ukrainians are training, still, on F16s in NATO countries. There are reports that some “retired” western F16 pilots will be made available to fly them into or over Ukraine.
Further, Russia is warning both France and Britain, and, in effect, the collective West that their supply of weapons to Ukraine, not to mention their positioning of forces in Ukraine, provides ample justification for a Russian retaliatory strike outside of Ukraine, against these and other countries. Most certainly if Russia is going to use tactical or any other kind of nuclear weapon it will want to do so well away from Russian borders. Russian threats may be intended to deter British and French forces from firing Storm Shadow missiles in support of a Ukrainian bid to hit the Kerch bridge on the day of Putin’s re-inauguration tomorrow as Russian president (tomorrow, May 7).
Savior Xi, Not So Much
Over Gaza the West has shown that there is no evil it will not contemplate to secure its hegemony. In the meantime there will be great pressure on Chinese President Xi Jinping who is now in talks with French President Macron. Xi has said he will do what he can but I think we should expect that his conditions on the West will be onerous. Xinping has said that Washington must make adjustments. The latest round of Washington sanctions on China, supposedly to punish it for “dual use” trade between China and Russia, much like US trades with most of the world, are preposterous, and hold up the collective West to ridicule.
It is always open to the West to stand down, of course. But what Medvedev correctly refers to as the “imbeciles” of European leadership, can never bring themselves to admit how stupid they are. They rarely utter the “word” peace other than in the sense that peace could be achieved if Russia just threw in the towel. Which Russia will not. Which China will not. And now the US is poisoning the waters of relationship with another major member of the BRICS, India, either the most populous or the second most populous country in the world after China.
Possibly the West is engaging in a major rhetorical subterfuge to force, as it imagines, a frozen conflict solution which, for Russia, will offer few advantages. More simply the West may be trying to persuade Russia not to proceed with what many expect may be an imminent big arrow offensive. Russia is less and less impressed by the collective West; they even sound disappointed that even the latest western “wonder weapon,” ATACMS missiles, turn out to be fairly easy to shoot down - Russia claims to have shot down 25 of the latest US consignment already.
Russia has issued the equivalents of arrest warrants for Zelenskiy, who will lose legitimacy in two weeks (note that Putin begins his new term as President tomorrow, May 7), and former President Petro Poroshenko who deliberately deceived the world over the Minsk accords, on his own confession.
The Battlefields
At attempt last night by Ukraine to attack the Russian naval base at Chernomorske with four unmanned surface vehicles failed, as these were unable to break through Russian boom barriers.
On the battlefields, there are major clashes in or around the eastern section of Chasiv Yar; nearby, Russia is recovering territory between Klishchiivka and Ivanivske moving on Klishchiivka from Avdiivka to the south around Dyliivka; Russia is capturing more territory between Soloviove and Berdychi to the east, and between Soloviove and Novoselivka Persha to the west. West of Avdiivka Russian forces have entered Natailove, and are moving on or improving their positions near Yasnobrodivksa (from Pervomaiske and Karlivka) and Umanske. North of Avdiivka it has entered the settlement of Novooleksandriivka and perhaps of Novopripovske (spelling provisional); other directions include Prohres, Kalynove, Ivanivke, Kurakhove.
North of Kupyansk it is consolidating control over Kyslivka and its surroundings, indicating a possible lunge westwards to Pischanne. Other directions include Prohres, Kalynove, Ivanivke, Kurakhove. On the borderlands Russia is using FPV drones to explode recently sown Ukrainian mines and continues to bomb Kharkiv. It is rumored that two large explosions near Kiev may have targeted western mercenary command centers.