Battlefield Blood, Campus Blood
Ukrainian Strengths in the Context of Russian Offensive
Yesterday, in a context of Russian advances in what is now officially acknowledged to be an offensive (see below), largely successful, in Ukraine, I took note also of areas of Ukrainian strength or resilience noting, in particular, its strikes on Crimea and the threat that it continues to pose to the Kerch bridge; its renewed bridgeheads in Kherson region along the Dnieper in the Krynky area, the Dnieper islands such as Noskyke, and further west into the Dnieper Estuary (where it can pose a threat to Russian towns on the southern bank such as Vrmohradne, Rybelche and Zabaryne), even as Russia has renewed its regular bombings of towns on the Ukrainian bank.
I also noted Ukrainian resilience in withstanding Russian advances in settlements such as Bilohorivka, Spirne and Krasnohorivka, even though Ukraine’s critics claim, with some justification, that Ukraine has a tendency to waste the lives of its soldiery in continuing to defend the indefensible. Lately, Ukraine has shown some success in holding back Russian advances on the Zherebetz river in the Lyman area, pushing Russian forces back towards Dibrove and impeding or at least delaying Russian advances in Makinvika, Novodiane, Nevske and Novosadove areas.
We can also point to occasional Ukrainian attacks on Russian territories in the borderlands area and Belgorod. In the critical area of Chasiv Yar, west of Bakhmut, Ukraine forced Russia back out of the micro district or the eastern part of the settlement yesterday or the day before, although Russia appears to be staging a counteroffensive. In the area between Ivanivske and Klishchiivka, Ukraine managed a temporary couneroffensive, although this too now seems to be coming to a close.
Also seeming to confer strength on the Ukrainian side, within an overall context of loss, are recent aid packages from the US and other NATO countries. Poland, as noted yesterday, is becoming increasingly aggressive on Ukraine’s behalf, no longer getting in the way of Ukraine’s agricultural exports to Poland, helping Ukraine by being ready to return Ukrainian refugees back to Ukraine to be drafted, announcing that it will increase its own reserves from 20,000 to 150,000 men, and formally submitting a request to the US for the stationing of nuclear weapons in Poland.
Russian Determination
Russia continues to fire missiles night and day on targets across Ukraine. Today, May 1st, is a major public holiday in Russia. Dmitry Medvedev has told the Russian people that Russia’s booming economy would enable it continue the struggle in Ukraine for as long as necessary. Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, explicitly mentioning a Russian offensive in Ukraine, said at a military meeting at Rostov-on-Don that Russia would continue to expand its weapons manufacturing capability, in order to maintain the pace of the offensive, and indicating that Russia’s SMO is going to plan.
Missiles on Crimea and Odessa
Ukraine, as I mentioned yesterday, is firing missiles, exclusively ATACMS, on Crimea. There have been three such waves of attacks in recent days. Russian sources are saying that these have done no damage. I find this claim to be unlikely. There is a history of less-than-sterling performance of Russian air defense over Crimea; it seems improbable that out of 30 powerful missiles not even one reached its target or occasioned much damage, or that Ukraine would persist in the deployment of such powerful weapons, in short supply, if it appeared that they were having no effect.
On the other hand, an opposing position is articulated today by Alexander Mercouris which is that the ATACMS in question are of the older, shorter-range kind, equipped with cluster warheads, so perhaps they are more vulnerable to standard air defense. There is the possibility that the effectivity of these missiles has been exaggerated since the time that these kinds of precision guided missiles were first introduced to battlefield warfare by the USA and by the Soviet Union around 1990. Russia has shown itself capable of shootding down the Tochka-U type missiles typically used by Ukraine. If Russia can do that, then Russia is also likely to be able to take down lower-range (say up to 700 kilometers) ATACMS by means of Russian hypersonic Iskander M missiles which have a speed of 5 to 6 Mach. This would help explain the continuing pressure on Germany to supply Taurus missiles, which are stealthier and might give Russia greater headaches.
Russia is regularly firing at targets in Odessa, including yesterday’s strike, as I reported in yesterday’s post, on the headquarters of a school of law. I was concerned because the missile that struck the building was equipped with a cluster warhead, and on a civilian target, and, therefore, very dangerous to civilians in an urban setting. This morning, I learn with interest that Russians are claiming that the missile was actually a Ukrainian BUK M1 air defense missile also equipped with a cluster warhead. They also say that as a result, 5 people were killed and 32 injured. If so, it is difficult to imagine by what logic the Ukrainians would use a cluster munition for this purpose in “defense” of an urban area and I do not understand why a cluster munition would be especially useful in the context of air defense and for firing on incoming missiles over one’s own territory. I am therefore not inclined to believe the Russian account.
Russian attacks on Odessa may be motivated in part by the increasing activity of Ukrainian forces encroaching on Russian-held territory south of the Dnieper estuary, since it would want to reduce Ukrainian capability of adding to the disruption in the estuary area with the use of drones sourced from Odessa. A recent Russian missile targeted a Ukrainian water drone facility, at least the second time that Russia has attempted to degrade water drones production. Water drones have been very helpful for Ukraine in its attacks on a number of Russian ships. In this instance it is reported that the targeted facility was about to launch water drones.
According to Russian sources, other Russian missiles struck a building that is used as Ukrainian Opeational Command “South” and caused many casualties; yet another was on a railway facility, perhaps a troop train, causing Ukraine to cordon off a large area around the facility, seeming to endorse the claim that significant damage was caused. A Russisan Iskander-M ORTK hit an Odessa pier. Russian Ministry of Defense sources claim that their recent attacks have not caused a single civilian death.
On the Battlefields
It appears that Russia has recaptured virtually the entirety of Robotyne in the “Bradley Square,” with Ukrainian forces clinging on to the north end of this settlment of ruins and bomb craters. To the east, Russia is subjecting Prechystivka to very heavy fire, perhaps in advance of a ground operation to seize the town. Further east, Russia continues to pummel not just Urozhaine and Staromaiorske but also the settlements of Blahodaine and Makarivka to the north of Staromaiorske.
On the battlefield around Avdiivka-Ocheretyne, most reports appear to confirm, as indicated in my post yesterday, that the villages of Keramik and Novokylinovo to the north east of Ocheretyne (which lies on high ground) have fallen to Russian control. Bild Zeitung is also confirming, as indicated in my post yesterday, that the Russians are advancing on the village of Arkhanskoye to the north of Ocheretyne and that the Russians continue to advance on Novooleksandrivka, perhaps heading northwest of the village in order to cut off connecting routes (roads, railways, communications) up towards Chasiv Yar, measures that are likely to entrap Ukrainian units in this area. Russia, having captured Berdychi, Semenivke and Selovoive, is moving further west towards Sokil, and south towards Novopokrovske and Umanske.
From Chasiv Yar, described by the Financial Times today as a “crucial Ukrainian stronghold” the loss of which could deprive Ukraine of its remaining defensive line in the Donbass, latest reports indicate that Russia has been enlarging the area that it controls along the Kanal in the German Forest area and clashing with Ukrainian forces in the area of Mount Baba to the north of German Forrest. Additional Russian forces are moving down towards the Kanal from Bohdanivka, via Kalynivka (which has yet to fall to Russia) and will likely cross the Kanal and attack the main center of the settlement. Meantime, the micro district on the eastern bank of the Kanal, which Russia temporarily occupied in recent weeks, appears to be encircled by Russian forces. However latest reports say that Russian forces have penetrated Chasiv Yar from the north-east and east. Over 20,000 Ukrainian troops are thought to be in or close to Chasiv Yar. Russia has determined those areas of the Kanal that would be easiest to cross - one is just south of Kalynivka; another is north of the German Forrest area west of Ivanivkse. Once Russian forces are crossing the Kanal the days of Chasiv Yar will very likely be numbered.
Following the fall of Avdiivka, it increasingly appears that Ukraine had insufficient time to build up adequate compensating lines of fortifications further west. The most likely such fortifications will be encountered around Slaviansk and Kramatorsk and that may help explain why Ukrainian forces may be attempting, however reluctantly, to move back to such lines. Russian forces in Krasnohorivka continue to make progress and it seems inevitable that the settlement will fall in the near future. In Vuhledar, whose supply lines to Kostiantynivka will soon be shut off by Russian advances from Novomikhailivka, Russian propaganda leaflets are warning Ukrainian forces in that settlement that they will soon be surrounded. Russian forces that are now in control of Novomikhailivka to the southeast of Vuhledar have moved westwards and taken control of Paraskovievka, a village that lies between Novomikhailivka and Kostyantynivka, so that Russia now has fire control over the eastern part of Kostyantyivka.
Palestine
There have been warnings in Congress, though not endorsed, yet, by the Biden administration, that if the ICC dares to serve warrants on Netanyahu and his top ministers, then the US will take action against the ICC. This would expose US influence over the ICC even though it is not party to the ICC’s founding statute. If the ICC does indeed intend to issue warrants and allows itself to be so blocked by the US, it will reveal itself to be a stooge of the USA and its credibility will be completely sabotaged. The ICC has not denied that it had a plan to issue the warrants.
Meanwhile, Israel insists that it will be invading Rafah, whether or not there is a deal on a ceasefire (which would be only for six weeks, and therefore totally unrealistic, and the US contines to build its “floating dock: in the Meditteranean that, in place of simply insisting that Israel allows through sufficient numbers of aid trucks to save the people of Gaza from starvation, it is proposing to finish in several weeks’ time at a cost of $320 million. Phil Giraldi, taking his cue from a question and answer to-and-for between Rep Matt Gaetz of the House Armed Services Committee and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, tolds Judge Napolitano today that he is sure that the floating dock will be used in a false flag incident staged so as to excuse US fire from the dock on to Palestinians.
Far outnumbering the 100 or so Israeli hostages in Hamas hands, Israel has 10,000 hostages - prisoners who have never been charged with anything - and now Ben Gvir says he wants to kill some of these so that there will be more space for new prisoners.
If and when the IDF moves into Rafah, many Palestinians will move back into northern Gaza where they fill find themselves under further IDF attack; others may move south towards Egypt. Natanyahu claims that the purpose of the attack on Rafah will be to destroy what he says are the four remaining Hamas batallions.
As Max Blumenthal explains to Judge Napolitano today, it has taken Israel seven months to get to this point; they have not, nor will not destroy Hamas (which will very likely grow in size given the recruitment tool that IDF cruelty has supplied it), and has not assassinated the main leaders of Hamas as it claimed it would. Blumenthal compares this failure to the US “deBathification” US program in Iraq which gave rise to the birth of ISIS. The IDF is still taking casualties in the north.
Blumenthal describes the IDF operation as a “complete failure.”
Blumenthal describes some of the connections between the repression of US students protesting the Israeli Gaza on American campuses nationwide and Israel. He notes the friendly relations between Israel supporter New York mayor Eric Adams (he has pledged total support to Israel and visited Netanyahu) and the NYPD, which pushed to get onto the campuses on the false pretext that the protests were being staged by outside agitators.
The NYPD has a counterterrorism office in Tel Aviv, with which NYPD intelligence director on the Middle East, Rebecca Weiner, who is also a professor at Columbia University, has close relations. This office has a reputation, exposed by the New York Times, for spying on Muslim students in the New York area and on students as far away as Yale and Rutgers. A “snitch,” and a “spook” - descriptors applied by Blumenthal - she claims that the students have “dangerous ideas“ and “rhetoric that is associated with terrorism.”
The NYPD, at Columbia University’s request, has taken control of the Columbia campus. It is in effect under occupation. This is the University that hosts professors like Victoria Nuland and Hilary Clinton. At this point we should note Jeffrey Sachs’ (also a Columbia University professor) reminder earlier today that all educational institutions in receipt of federal funds are required to uphold free speech, and free speech can perfectly well accommodate what some people might choose to call “dangerous ideas,” and that is why the US has always proclaimed its commitment to free speech.
Without free speech there is no possibility of productive debate, of open contestation between the different claims, perspectives and ideas that are necessary to inclusive political determination. Even so-called hate speech is protected under the First Amendment. Yet because students are engaging in free speech they are being assaulted, refused graduation, denied access even to their own dorms. We are, as Blumenthal says, “kind of living in Netanyahu’s America.”
US political elites are deliberately, deceitfully and dangerously equating “anti-Israeli” and “anti-Zionist” positions with anti-semitism. At UCLA, Blumental reports that students are being physically assualted, brutally beaten by Zionist hooligans with pipes and pepper sprayed, without police intervention, even as the LAPD stands by and watches. The White House press secretary refuses to condemn these atrocities, many of them committed by west LA Israeli expats, of whom not a few are former Israeli military whose purpose is to apply outrageous violence against those who would stand up in protest against Israeli genocide. Nobody in Los Angeles in a position of power has yet stood up to defend UCLA student protestors, and to defend their rights under the First Amendment of the US constitution.
Both Ukraine and Gaza are being used by US elites, who are driven by freakish, nonhuman corporatist and plutocratic agendas, to further undermine an already extremely problematic and fragile species of democracy in the USA. The US supports both a neonazi, ethnonationalist dictatorship in Ukraine, and a fanatic, genocidal regime in Israel, and the Biden Administration does everything it can to criminalize US opposition to both these regimes.