Biden-Blinken Blunders (R)

Bad Day at Ocheretyne

Reports cited by Dima on his midday (pacific coast time of the USA) broadcast today (April 27) continue to confirm Russian control of Ocheretyne, north of Berdychi and Avdiivka, and say that Russia is now in control of the settlement of Keramik and close to being in control of Novokalynove (both to the northeast of Ocheretyne), while also progressing on towards Arkhanelske to the northwest. A cauldron is being formed around Ukrainian troops in this area. Russia is reported to be sending 10,000 fresh troops into this area, possibly as a prelude to the next major Russian push westwards to Novopokrovske and Novoselivka Persha.

Other reports, cited by Alexander Mercouris (but curiously not mentioned by Dima), - who sounded a little less than totally convinced - and attributed to an adviser to the governor of Donetsk, reported in TASS, somewhat earlier today suggested that Ukrainian forces in the West of Berdychi (south of Ocheretyne) had been cut off and encircled by forces of the former Donetsk militia. This was a batallion (or a group of batallion strenth, several hundred men) of the 115th Brigade which was acting as a rear guard covering for the withdrawal of the elite 47th Brigade. The 115th batallion appeared to have indicated its readiness to surrender, with the consent of the brigade’s commander.

If true, then this falls into the category of recent Ukrainian fails which include a surrender of the 25th Airborne Brigade two weeks ago in Vodiane, north of Pervomaiske (the 25th has since been disbanded), a surrender of another batallion of the 115 Brigade together with men of the 104 territorial Brigade (note that the 115th Brigade is made up of almost entirely recently mobilized men; many of its commanders are under arrest and interrogation), the 67th (Right Sektor) Assault Brigade, which has been disbanded after it gave up without orders at Chasiv Yar, the Third Assault Brigade (the reconstituted Azov brigade) which refused to take part in a counterattack in Avdiivka during the February fighting, unhappy about being redeployed to Chasiv Yar. There have been reports of problems with other brigades. In this connection, Dima today mentions trouble with the 68th Brigade further north as Russia has begun to attack Cherneshchy.

The Battlefields

After another night of Russian drone and missile attacks (approximately 40 of each, with Ukraine claiming to have shot down 70% of them), Russia appears to have destroyed two more thermal power plants in the west of Ukraine (Dobrot Vorskaye and Burshtyne) and to have once again hit the underground gas storage facility (a major source of supply for Europe) at Stryi.

West of Berdychi, Russia has occupied the settlements of Solovyov and Semenivka. Whether or not it is related to the above report of a bid to surrender by a batallion of the 115th Brigade, it does certainly appear, as noted yesterday, that a large Russian cauldron is forming from the west of Berdychi (in the east), to Solonove (in the north), to Novoselivke Persha, Mezhove and Skuchne (in the west) and to Umanske (in the south).

Russian penetration of both the southern and northern sections of Krasnohorivka is confirmed, with Russian forces moving noth of the Lasove river from the direction of Staromykhailivka, cutting the settlement into two. Russia has taken the first one or two buildings in a high rise area, and subjecting others to FPV drones. The general objective, once the Krasnohorivka operation is completed, is for Russian forced to move westerwards to Hostro and then further on to the much larger town of Kurakhove.

Further south, around Novomykhailivka, Russian forces are regrouping in preparation for an operation that will involve Russia taking Kostyantynivka and moving westwards in a manner that will likely put the entire zone of Vuhledar into at least a three-sided cauldron once the main supply route between Kostyantynivka and Vuhledar has been cut. Russia continues to pummel the city of Vuhledar and has taken much of the farmland to its southeast, north of Russian-held settlements of Mykikske and Pavlivka, in preparation for a ground offensive that will begin with Russian forces crossing the Kasheheck river.

To the west, Russian forces continue to pummel Urozhaine in preparation for a ground offensive operation that will cover this settlement along with its neighbor Staromaiorske.

To the north of Avdiivka, in the area west of Bakhmut, Russian forces are concentrating at the edge of the Russian Forest southeast of Chasiv Yar, while continuing to pummel the district on the eastern bank of the Donetsk canal, and attacking the settlement of Kalynivka to the north, which will facilitate the deployment of Russian troops onto Chasiv Yar from Bohdanivka which lies to the east of Kalynivka, also indicating the development eventually of a cauldron around Chasiv Yar.

There are no reported developments at Rozdolivka, north of Bakhmut, nor at Vrymka, while at Spirne Russia continues to pummel the settlement, preparing to push Ukrainian forces further back from the main combat line to Ivano-Darivka. There are no reported developments at Bilohorivka. Nor at Terny on the way up towards Lyman and Kupyansk. In the central Kupyansk area, Russian forces appear to have captured the eastern end of the settlement of Kotliraivka, south of Russian-held Yahidne, where they will likely move on the railway and the M26. In progressing on to the Oskil river, Russia is in the process of securing a broad swathe of territory from the West of Stelmakhivka, up through Berestove and Pitchane to Yahidne.

The only report from the northern borderlands is a Russian drone and missile attack on a concentration of Ukrainian forces at Karaichne.

In the Kherson area, following the recent renewal of Ukrainian interest in Kasachi Laheri and Krynky area along the east bank of the Dnieper, Russia has resumed its regular pounding of Ukrainian towns along the west bank.

The Appropriation

The first, small ($1 billion, including 12 Bradleys, Javelins, Stingers, HIMARS rockets etc.) tranche of US aid has reached Ukraine. $6 billion will go on weapons that will be produced in about two years time; this constitutes about half of the $13 billion of the aid recently passed by Congress. A promise of $2.5 billion by Britain turns out to be simply a restatement of aid first promised by Boris Johnson. One or two European governments like Greece and Spain have agreed to provide some of their Patriot missiles.

(Note the removal of Abrams tanks from the front lines, probably indicating a negative judgment of their performance in the era of drones and of ubiquitous, instant surveillance. Drones plus surveillance have proved a major obstacle in general to tanks on the battlefield, calling for urgent new strategies. A future generation of Russian drones is planned that will shoot down Ukrainian FPV drones).

Czech President Pavel’s plan to buy 800,000 shells on the international arms market, has now fallen to 300,000 of which the purchase of only 100,000 has so far been accomplished, while the Czechs complain that the price of shells is rising relentlessly. Mercouris on his broadcast today speculates that most of those shells are coming from the US.

Mass Murder in Palestine

In a post today by former British ambassador Craig Murray (Craig Murray), Murray argues that the genocide in Gaza is being conducted with the full awareness and collaboration of the USA and Europe. He argues that governments generally cannot take big decisions extremely quickly. They first have to “consider policy decisions, weigh them up, involve the various departments of the state whose activities are affected by that decision, and arrive at a conclusion.” With this in mind, the avers that the decision to stop aid funding to UNRWA was not taken in a single day. Yet immediately (i.e. within an hour!) following the judgment against Israel by the International Court of Justice, this decision was taken by the US and many European governments on the basis of what seemed then and are now confirmed to be highly dubious and false claims by Israel of UNRWA complicity in Hamas resistance.

All countries involved, says Murray, “had to go through their procedures, and it could only be by prior coordination – weeks in advance – between these states that they announced all on the same day the destruction of the life support system for Palestinians, then in absolute need”. He goes on to conclude that “the Western political elite, paid tools of the zionist machine, are complicit in the genocide of Palestinians and ethnic cleansing of Gaza at a much deeper level than the people have yet understood….This sent the clearest signal in response that the Western powers would not be stopped from the genocide by international law or institutions…This genocide is the desired goal of the West. No other explanation is remotely plausible”.

Because the collective West seeks to control the world’s most important source of fossile fuel, by means of establishing a greater Israel, in alliance with Western-back Sunni monarchies, the White House and State Department spokesmen have refused to accept any single instance of Israel atrocity and defer to Israel on every single crime. They justify their arming of Israel by creating the fictional threat of Iran.

China

It is clear that Blinken’s official objective for his recent visit to Beijing, which was to persuade China to desist from trading with Russia in products that the US deems to assist Russia’s war in Ukraine, has failed. If anything it will have confirmed in Chinese assessments that the US is deeply untrustworthy. Both Russia and China will now have come to the conclusion that the USA is never an honest interlocuter, and this conclusion has extremely negative implications for the future of great power diplomacy in this era of the collective West’s counterrevolution against the emergence of multipolarity.

While still in China, Blinken explicitly indicated that the US can only cooperate with China when the interests of both countries align. Outside of that framework, therefore, only hostility is left. President Putin is due to visit Beijing in May, and it is conceivable that he will receive from China a message from the USA, and that China, mindful of Blinken’s warning that if China values a positive relationship with Europe, may use the occasion of Putin’s visit to pressure Russia to bring an end to the SMO and/or to embark on a process of negotiation. I do not think that China would possibly be fooled by Blinken’s logic, or that it would be intimidated by the US renewal of threats of sanctions. China is far too great a manufacturer, and too great a power, to have to be impressed by US bullying, even as it constructs a new global financial and trading architecture with the BRICS alliance that will, eventually, replace those that have been built by the collective West. However, it would not be beyond imagination that China does have ideas as to how the Ukraine conflict can be resolved to mutual benefit earlier than otherwise for the greater safety of the world’s population.