"Better an unsatisfactory peace than a debacle" - Alexander Mercouris
Main takeaways from Alexander Mercouris broadcast of January 21 2023.(Mercouris 01.21.2023)
There are important developments both on the battlefields and also among the western powers concerning supply of weapons to Ukraine.
Russian Zaporizhzhia Advance
The Russian military has made some kind of advance in the Zaporizhzhia region. Russian official Vladimir Rogoff, senior official in the Zaporizhzhia government says that Russia has advanced several kilometers, has taken a cluster of settlements, and is confronting Ukrainian positions in a number of locations close to the city of Zaporizhzhia (which used to have 750,000 population but is now down to about 400,000), lying mainly on the eastern bank of the Dnieper and constituting a key part of the Ukrainian economy.
Once Russian forces have taken full control over the settlements in question, it is possible that they will approach Zaporizhzhia itself. Rogoff talks about panic among Ukrainian leadership as to whether it is time to evacuate the city (Mercouris discounts this claim). Bernhardt at Moon of Alabama talks of a general lack of Ukrainian forces in this area (only 3 brigades, infantry rich but not mobile) whereas the British MOD, by contrast claims there are large Ukrainian forces concentrated in this region, as have the Russians. Bernhardt cites a credible source but the British MOD does not.
The purposes of the Russian advance are unknown. Most of the settlements taken are in no man’s land, not heavily defended by Ukraine. Is this the beginning of the major Russian offensive? If so, its purpose is most likely to cut off supply lines for Ukrainian forces to the south and perhaps ultimately to cut off Ukrainian forces in Donbass completely. If Russia advances on the small town of Orokhoff (spelling provisional!) and capturing it, then we may be more justified in talking about a major Russian offensive. Also the likelihood of a Ukrainian offensive to Melitopol will be much diminished in favor of Ukraine sending more reinforcements to Bakhmut, where there is a slow motion Ukrainian collapse.
Mercouris doubts that Russia will try to invade Zaporizhzhia city, which is defended by one brigade, and Russia probably does not want to get dragged into street fighting. Russia may be less interested in an advance for the sake of an advance but to apply pressure on Ukraine and weaken its overall position on other frontlines, particularly Bakhmut.
Bakhmut
There are reports that Russia is close to Ivanovka, making conditions on the roads ever more dangerous for Ukrainian use. Wagner has taken Kreshniagoro which sits on the road between Bakhmut and Sversk. Russia is now shelling Ukrainian fortified positions to the west of Bakhmut. Ukraine is facing a major operational crisis in Bakhmut city and to the north of the city. Wagner has captured another settlement north of Soledar, pushing forward closer to Sversk. Yet Ukraine - Zelenskiy and the Ukrainian military - continues to insist that it controls Soledar and Kreshievska. The US military, meanwhile, is strongly advising Ukraine to pull out of Bakhmut.
Mercouris cites an article by “Big Serge” on Medium or Substack, which has provided an overall survey of the war, and is commended by Larry Johnson, former CIA analyst. it explains the significance of Bakhmut.
The Bakhmut battle has been sold to western audiences as exemplar of all the supposed vices of Russian forces, and an illustration of Russia’s obsession with a town that has little strategic importance. The truth is the literal opposite (as has been consistently argued since last summer by Mercouris himself, by the way). Bakhmut is essential to Ukrainian defenses but Russia has converted it into a death trap. Western pretense that Bakhmut is not significant is insulting to media audiences and insulting to the Ukrainian troops killed or wounded in trying to defend it.
Bakhmut lies at the heart of the regional communications network. The defenses have been built up over the past eight years both to harrass Donbass republics and to prepare for war against Russia [enabled by Merkel’s Minsk deception]. It is highly urbanized and industrial. Over 90% of the population lives in urban areas, n typically robust Soviet building complexes. The front line is riddled with complex trenches and fortifications.
Following Russian success in taking Severodonetsk and Lysychansk back in the summer, the front line has now fallen back to the second or third “belt,” and the second belt is heavily bleeding.The area around Marinka has been virtually abandoned by Ukraine, and Adiivka is threatened, with Slaviansk and Kramatorsk constituting a weak and difficult-to-defend third belt, being the least fortified of the three. The absurd level of Ukrainian force concentration here (up to 34 brigades have been deployed in this area, 7 more than the 27 cited recently byt Bernhardt - an astonishing level of commitment). Russian forces have been slowly collapsing this second belt by slow, artillery-driven advances, nothing related to Ukrainian propaganda about Russian “human waves.” Ukraine is clearly suffering huge losses, and Mercouris wonders whether the Russian advance in Zaporizhzhia will force Ukraine to choose between defense of Zaporizhzhia or defense of Bakhmut. Neither seems a strong bet at the moment. Western tanks may help Ukraine but will make no difference to the overall outcome of the war.
The Leopard 2 Saga of European Disunity
Germany’s intelligence service, BMD, made a report to the German parliament a week ago which seemed to confirm the importance of Bakhmut, the weakening of Ukraine’s defense of Bakhmut, and the likelihood that the collapse of Bakhmut will signal Russian victory of the war for Donbass. This may help explain the recent resignation of the German defense minister, and the inability of western defense ministers at their meeting yesterday in Ramstein to persuade Germany to give up Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. Chancellor Scholtz’s appointment of a replacement defense minister (Mr. Pistorius) who is an SPD politician and has a security background makes it increasingly clear that the German military are very unhappy with western pressure re. Leopards. We have had critical commentaries on this by Generals Vad and Kuyak (who was senior in the military hierarchy, whereas Vad is more of a “political soldier”) and there is now additional critical commentary from the head of the military union, Andre Wusner. He worries about a severe shortage of weapons by 2025 because of the energy crisis, in conditions in which producers cannot supply at a profit, and asks what kind of delivery of tanks to another country can Germany contemplate? Are German generals challenging their politicians to rethink their logic, and their priorities, as Ukraine bleeds to death regardless of how many tanks Germany can send? Public opinion in Germany is shifting against the supply of Leopards.
Ramstein
The NATO hardliners meanwhile are very angry with Germany. The US wont supply its Abrams, but expects Germany to supply its Leopards. Perhaps this is why there was a reshuffle of ministers, to make sure there was someone to face off against other NATO ministers.
The British media is charactgeristically outraged. The Netherlands is considering supply of F16 fighter jets. The British are saying that if the Dutch are thinking this way, then others should do so too. The US itself is advising Ukraine to hold off from launching any offensive at the moment until troops have been trained in the use of the advanced weapons that the US has promied to supply.
The media is not informing the western public properly on these developments. Are positions being prepared for an inevitable blame game if Ukraine collapses, and so that Germany can be scapegoated? The fact that Germany refused to supply Leopard 2s does not in fact mean that these tanks will not be supplied to Ukraine: the pressure on Germany will build in future weeks and months, smearing Germans as appeasers for Putin. Germany has historically been very averse to being attacked in this way by its NATO neighbors. Mercouris thinks that Germany will eventually crack and supply some numbers of Leopards. Yet this does not undermine the significance of Ramstein. The doubts are increasingly expressed, in Germany and in the USA. Lynn’s article in the Telegraph critiquing the possible compromise of Challenger tanks if sent to Ukraine perhaps demonstrates the strains that lie behind the public unanimity. US defense minister Lloyd Austin at Ramstein talked of the war being at a turning point, and perhaps it is if Bakhmut falls or if the Russian advance in Zaporizhzhia accelerates. General Milley, US Chief of Staff, says it will be very, very difficult for Ukraine to drive the Russians out of all Ukrainian territory.
Tanks or no tanks, the forces that Russia is accumulating, which do not remotely tapp out Russia’s existing reserves, are too powerful for the matter to make an existential difference to the wart.
Talking peace would make a lot of sense. Better an unsatisfactory peace than a debacle.