Battleground Updates (2)

On the Military Summary Channel at midnight last night of May 16/17th Dima confirms indications of an upcoming Russian offensive on Sumy, well to the West of Lyptsi and Vovchansk, which will stretch Ukrainian defense forces even further than they already are. The buildup of Russian forces north of Sumy is considerable, suggesting to some sources, as reported by Reuters, that Russia’s invasion of Kharkiv is a feint intended to draw Ukrainian troops into that area in avance of a more important advance on Sumy. But it could be that Russia merely wants Ukraine to think there will be a bigger offensive. In the meantime, Russia has extended its missile and FPV strikes in the area east of Hlyboke to include Mali Prokhody and, further out towards Sumt, the villages of Ternove and Kudiivka.

Zelenskiy has posted a selfie of himself in front of a Kharkiv sign. Dima recalls with heavy irony that Zelenskiy did the same thing in Avdiivka a few months before that critically important town fell to Russian forces. More importantly, Zelenskiy has requested NATO to send trainers for Ukraine’s recently mobilized 150,000 troops. Dima claims that Zelenskiy is unwilling to send new conscripts to Europe for training, as in the past, for fear that many will use that opportunity for the purposes of escape. In addition, Zelenskiy has signed a law allowing for the mobilization of convicts which is reported will introduce a further 20,000 conscripts into the field, although one must consider that many of these will not only be experienced but also resistant and rebellious and subversive. The US has so far refused Zelenskiy’s request for trainers, perhaps chagrined at recent Pentagon audit revelations from 63 instances of allegations of theft that show that 12% of foreign aid sent to Ukraine this year has been corruptly siphoned off.

Some thirty Ukrainian batallions have reportedly been deployed in the Kharkiv area already, the equivalent of two brigades.

New York Times reports today that Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said yesterday that a NATO deployment of trainers appeared inevitable. “We’ll get there eventually, over time,” he said.

“For now, he said, an effort inside Ukraine would put “a bunch of NATO trainers at risk” and would most likely mean deciding whether to use precious air defenses to protect the trainers instead of critical Ukrainian infrastructure near the battlefield.”

Latest reports from Crimea show that Ukraine’s recent missile attacks did hit the Belbek airfield with an ATACMS missile in western Crimea and destroyed a significant number of Russian planes (including two, very expensive MiG 31s and a S400 air defense system that was presumably defending the airfield) and that although not many of Ukraine’s naval drones may have gotten through to the mainland, the situation in the Black Sea remains “difficult” for Russia. Ukraine also hit the Balakava thermal power plant, causing a widespread blackout in that area. Many naval drones aimed for targets east of Crimea on the Russian mainland. Ukraine fired 140 missiles altogether and 20 naval drones. Russia claims to have shot down 46 UAVs, and to have jammed 5, and brought down another nine with small arms fire. Just possibly, Russia’s attention has been fixated on the Kerch bridge and somehow, as a result, other locations have been less well attended to, but the fact that the MiG 31s were apparently not even under cover will require a considerable shakeup of security in Crimea.

This morning’s reports from the Kharkiv front suggest either that the Russian advances have been slightly exaggerated or that Russian forces are pulling back in front of Ukrainian counterattacks. It would now seem that most if not all of Lyptsi is still under Ukrainian control or, at least, is still in the grey or contested area of combat. But it also seems that Russian forces have moved across the Lypets river to the east of Lyptsi, between Slobozhanske (which is immediately to the south of Lyptsi) and Neskuchne, well to the east, where the ultimate aim may be to suppress a Ukrainian stronghold to the east of Lyptsi and to take a line of villages further to the east from Zelene in the north, through Neskuchne to Vesele.

In Vovchansk I would say that previous assessments that Russian forces had taken the entirety of the northern section above the Volcha river were exaggerated and that in reality Russian forces appear to be in complete control of the north west of the settlement, including its hospital, but that the remainder remains in the grey zone for now. In the east a small detachment of Russian forces managed to cross the Volcha river but was eventually driven back by Ukrainians. The rest of the settlement is under heavy Russian bombardment and it would seem inevitable that this town will fall to Russia. Russia also strikes on Ukrainian positions south of the town. Dima notes that a prestigious Russian unit that is among the most experienced FPV drone operators has been redeployed to this area and is already showing results.

Most importantly, Russian President Vladimir Putin, in alignment with my expectation in a recent post, has said within the past 24 hours that Russia has no plans for now to invade Kharkiv.

Elsewhere, reports confirm that Russian forces have has entered Bilohorrivka in the Siversk area. They are almost in complete control of Umanske and Netailove west of Avdiivka; and are making further advances through the north west of Krasnohoriivka (the remaining part of the settlement that is under Ukrainian control) where Russian forces have established a cauldron entrapping possibly a few hundred Ukrainian soldiers. Ukrainian forces are reportedly abandoning Nevelske. West of Marinka, Russisan forces have now advanced and taken control over much of Heorhiivka, positioning Russia to move further westwards to Maksymilisanka and, ultimately, Kurakhove. This would contribute to the fall of Kostyantynivka to the south and, therefore, of Vuhledar, and in effect would secure Russian victory in the southern Donbass. The Ukrainian 79th brigade is reporting that the first Russian troops have already arrived at the eastern end of Kostyantynivka. To the southwest, Russian forces have penetrated Staramaiorske and continue to bombard nearby Urozhaine.