Battlefield Notes
Since Oreshnik, and since the Russian destruction of 5 ATACMS launchers a few days ago, there has been less Western missile activity from Ukraine and less Western media excitement about precision-guided weapons against targets in Russia.
No convincing evidence yet of North Korean troops in Kursk though there may be Ukrainian forces receiving training in Russia; there may be North Koreans working in Russian weapons factories in the East and North Korean factories working to produce weapons for Russia. Pressure for South Korea to escalate on Washington’s behalf will have diminished in view of the upcoming impeachment of President Yoon. South Korean people don’t like the idea of nuclear annihilation and nor should we.
The Ukrainian presence in Kursk has been reduced to a third in terms of territory. Elsewhere, Russia very close now to final victories in V. Novosilka, Toretsk, Kurakhove and Chasiv Yar. No new Ukrainian offensive just yet.
Latest casualty of the Cold War is the French government likely to fall later today to a no-confidence vote inspired in good measure by Marine Le Pen’s hostility to the Macron giveaway of French wealth to Zelenskiy.
Syrian army and Russian forces continue to stall jihadi advances around Hama. Evidence emerging of many months’ pre-planning and preparation for the assault on Aleppo. Turkiye’s motive may be linked to evidence of discussions between Assad and the Kurds in which Türkiye was not a participant. I would say that Turkey has no business whatsoever meddling in Syria regardless of what fears it may have about the Kurds.
It should have resolved this issue decades ago. Now it wants Syria to pay for Erdogan’s own grotesque mistakes - errors which look smart in the short term, horrendous in the long term.
Erdogan’s aggression may not have been unwelcome to the US and Israel despite their support for the SDF. The way forward now, it seems, is for a resuscitation of the Astana accords whereby Russia, Iran and Turkey will work with Syria towards stabilization and a durable settlement between Turkiye and Syria that will also respect Kurdish interests. If Assad has concluded that such an ambition is unrealistic he deserves our sympathy but he needs at least to try.