Balance Sheet

Israel’s perceived benefits:

De Jure legitimacy as a nation.

Possession of hundreds of nuclear warheads; the only nuclear weapons power in the region.

Full US political, military and financial support, both from government and from the donor classes that subsidize US parties and political campaigns.

Israel uses its US subsidies to bribe and threaten the entire political apparatus of the US.

US buying out of Arab elites in Israel’s favor in Egypt, Jordan, UAE and elsewhere. Many neighboring Arab countries are very weak economically and politically, sometimes weakened by the US in cooperation with Israel (e.g. Iraq, Syria).

Ability to threaten chaos to seduce US participation in a war for Israeli regional dominance and at the same time to ensure US dominance in the region, a region which continues to be the globe’s single most important source of oil.

Israel’s Perceived Disadvantages:

Demographic time bomb favors Arabs. Yet increasing dependence on disenfranchised underclasses.

Loss of any kind of moral integrity. There is worrying evidence/speculation as to Israeli complicity with Hamas and the events of October 7th 2023, and of deep Israeli deceptions about the events of that day.

The presence of strong competition for regional dominance from Iran, especially, but also Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Egypt could be a player in the event that Israel sinks.

Some of these competitors are in alliance with one another; some share membership of the BRICS - a critical polar opposite to Washington control.

Some of these competitors (esp. Iran and Syria) have the military and political backing of Russia, and Russia has a close alliance with China whose economic power depends in part on access to Middle Eastern oil.

Russia is increasingly disaffected from its longstanding policy of good relations with Israel.

The US and its allies have been weakened by their investments in and losses in Ukraine.

Israel ‘s “iron dome” is looking more like a paper cup and Iran clearly has the capacity to cripple Israeli infrastructure.

Israel’s economy is in free fall

Israeli society is polarized.

(To be continued)