Russia appears to be making advances towards encirclement of Avdievka, and to be pushing forward to Kupiansk. Progress in the Marinka and Vuhledar area appears to have tapered off, both because of weather, and because of a redeployment of Russian forces from this area in order to reinforce action in Avdievka. In Bakhmut,where some but not all reports suggest that Russia now controls the Azom plant close to the city centrer, the situation looks trickier. Poor weather appears to have delayed any Ukrainian attempt to break through the Russian cauldron to relieve Ukrainian forces in the center of the city, assuming that there will be such an attempt. Wagner estimates of Ukrainian troop numbers in the area lend support to the idea that Ukraine may be intending a counteroffensive once the weather has cleared, something that Ukrainian commanders are themselves saying and which Wagner is warning of. Wagner estimates a total of 80,000 Ukrainian troops and 250 artillery and tanks in Donbass, including a small number of Leopard IIs. Otherwise, TASS correspondents do not report massive presence of western-supplied equipment here. A proportion of the total troop numbers (perhaps 10,000) are presumably in the Bakhmut garrison. It is unlikely that all the remainder would be deployed to a Bakhmut breakthrough offensive, but something significant is still possible, perhaps even to be expected.
Assessing Ukrainian Counteroffensives
Assessing Ukrainian Counteroffensives
Assessing Ukrainian Counteroffensives
Russia appears to be making advances towards encirclement of Avdievka, and to be pushing forward to Kupiansk. Progress in the Marinka and Vuhledar area appears to have tapered off, both because of weather, and because of a redeployment of Russian forces from this area in order to reinforce action in Avdievka. In Bakhmut,where some but not all reports suggest that Russia now controls the Azom plant close to the city centrer, the situation looks trickier. Poor weather appears to have delayed any Ukrainian attempt to break through the Russian cauldron to relieve Ukrainian forces in the center of the city, assuming that there will be such an attempt. Wagner estimates of Ukrainian troop numbers in the area lend support to the idea that Ukraine may be intending a counteroffensive once the weather has cleared, something that Ukrainian commanders are themselves saying and which Wagner is warning of. Wagner estimates a total of 80,000 Ukrainian troops and 250 artillery and tanks in Donbass, including a small number of Leopard IIs. Otherwise, TASS correspondents do not report massive presence of western-supplied equipment here. A proportion of the total troop numbers (perhaps 10,000) are presumably in the Bakhmut garrison. It is unlikely that all the remainder would be deployed to a Bakhmut breakthrough offensive, but something significant is still possible, perhaps even to be expected.