A World in Turmoil

Developments in Palestine

Middle East Eye reports on Israel’s launch of its largest offensive on the occupied West Bank since the Second Intifada, 2002-2005. It has assaulted the three cities of Jenin, Tulkarm and Tubas, from land and air. At least nine Palestinians were killed. The assault began just after midnight as undercover Israeli soldiers entered the Jenin refugee camp and the Nur Shams refugee camp in Tulkarm. In Tubas, Israeli troops arrived via military helicopters and led the assault there, particularly in the Far’a refugee camp. Large numbers of Israeli forces then raided the camps and besieged hospitals, preventing paramedics from reaching them.

A siege has been imposed on all the three cities, cutting them off from the rest of the Palestinian territory. Workers and students have been forced to remain indoors. Sources say that Israeli forces are raiding homes and using residents as human shields. The Israeli military said it was carrying out a large “counter-terror” operation in Jenin and Tulkarm without elaborating further. Four battalions are reported to be involved in the offensive, including ground troops and the air force, and it is expected that it will last several days. Israel’s Foreign Minister Israel Katz has called for the “temporary evacuation” of Palestinians from parts of the occupied West Bank.

Palestinian armed groups in the targeted cities, including the local chapters of Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Fatah, said their members were confronting the Israeli military, including detonating explosive devices against troops.

Starving Gaza

Andre Damon for the World Socialist Web Site reports that Israeli officials have ordered the evacuation of parts of the city of Deir al-Balah, cramming the displaced and starving population of Gaza into an ever-smaller portion of the territory.

“Gaza’s population, which stood at over 2 million before the start of the genocide, is now crammed into an area that is just 41 square kilometers, or 11 percent of Gaza’s total area, with the remaining 89 percent being placed on evacuation orders by the Israeli Defense Forces.

“The United Nations warned, ‘The area is lacking critical infrastructure and basic services, while aid provision is limited due to access and security issues. The severe overcrowding, with a density of 30,000 to 34,000 individuals per square kilometer has exacerbated the dire shortage of essential resources such as water, sanitation and hygiene supplies, health services, protection and shelter.’”

The United Nations suspended food distribution efforts for a second time, after UN staff were forcibly expelled from the city of Rafah during the earlier military operations there.

“Between August 23 and 26, 170 Palestinians in Gaza were killed and 390 were injured, amid non-stop bombing and ground offensives throughout the entirety of the Gaza Strip, according to the Ministry of Health. According to official statistics, 40,435 Palestinians were killed and 93,534 were injured since October last year. But this figure does not include 10,000 people thought to be killed and buried under the rubble.

According to the official figures, the death toll includes 17,000 children, meaning that 2.6 percent of all of Gaza’s children have been killed, with an average of 53 children killed every day since October 7.

Once the victims of Israel’s deliberate famine and promotion of disease are added, the real death toll could be 186,000 or more, according to an estimate published in the Lancet medical journal.”

Al Jazeera journalist Tareq Abu Azzoum, notes thsat Israeli evacuation orders are making families desperate as they look for somewhere to sleep and they will soon have problems finding water. 70 percent of desalination plants and water wells in Gaza are located inside evacuation areas. 96 percent of Gaza’s population face acute food insecurity, and nine out of 10 have spent 24 hours or more without food. At least 50,000 children in Gaza require treatment for acute malnutrition, while more than 96 percent of infants from 6 to 23 months are not meeting their basic nutritional requirements. Infectious disease is running rampant.

Awaiting Justice for Illegal Occupation and Genocide

David Kattenburg for Mondoweiss has usefully updated what is going on with the ICC arrest warrants against Netanyahu and Gallant. The ICC has previously ruled that:

“Israel’s 57-year occupation and colonial settlement of the Palestinian territories are unlawful, it must withdraw from the territories “as rapidly as possible,” and UN member states must hold Israel to account for its wrongful acts, the International Court of Justice declared last July 19, in The Hague, in a non-binding 12-3 vote”.

We also await the ruling of the International Criminal Court’s Pre-Trial Chamber 1 as to whether to approve Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan’s May 20 application for arrest warrants against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and three Hamas leaders (one of them already killed by Israel).

The ICC Pre-Trial Chamber I (PTC) may approve Khan’s application, in which case arrest warrants would likely be issued shortly thereafter. Or, the PTC may tell Khan that Israel should have an opportunity to prove that its own legal system is capable of holding Israelis responsible for the war crimes and crimes against humanity they’ve allegedly committed, a process that could drag on for months.

Progress in the former direction has been interrupted by the UK which in effect seeks ICC approval of the principle of Israeli control over negotiations with Palestine. The PTC granted Britain’s request, ruling that other parties could file comparable amicus briefs too.

“The three PTC judges—Romanian, Beninese, and French—are now sifting through a pile of 10-page briefs. Roughly half of them call on the Chamber to approve Khan’s application for arrest warrants, while the other half call for the application to be denied or delayed.”

Arguments against a warrant say that Israel is not a party to the Rome Statute; that Palestine is not a “real” state; Palestine cannot “delegate” to the ICC a jurisdiction over Israelis; that the arrest warrants would violate the Oslo accords and create “a misguided, shocking moral equivalence between Israel and Hamas leaders.” Restrictions on travel for Israelis might negatively impact the world economy. Further, Khan is said to have failed to allow Israel the right to investigate the alleged crimes themselves.

In favor of the warrants, the PTC has already ruled that Palestine is a State Party for the purposes of the Rome Statute and that Oslo is not “pertinent” to ICC jurisdiction. Others who support the warrants say that the claim that Israel conferred a limited criminal jurisdiction upon the State of Palestine [in the Oslo Accords] is a colonialist vision. The ICC should be seen to act on behalf of the international community as q whole, not on behalf of State Parties. Palestine cannot be deemed, through its adherence to the Oslo Accords, to have abandoned any aspects of its sovereignty. Further, the ICJ has cited Article 47 of the Fourth Geneva Convention: protected people “shall not be deprived” of the benefits of the Convention “by any agreement concluded between the authorities of the occupied territories and the Occupying Power.”

Khan has rebutted the claims made against his authority to issue the warrants. Further charges, including that of genocide, are expected. And charges may be broadened to include additional persons such as Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir. Arrest warrants against Israel’s top leaders by the world’s preeminent criminal court will be impossible, it is hoped, for Israel’s allies to ignore. We shall see.

Developments in Ukraine

Battlefield developments this week are working steadily in Russia’s favor, both in Kursk and along the Donbass lines of combat. Dima makes the important observation that Russia’s main response to Ukraine’s invasion of Kursk was to build a strong line of fortifications from west of Ryl'sk, eastwards towards the south of Kurchatov, and then - as Ukrainian progress slowed further south in Vishnevka, Korenevo, Russoe and Kaschya Loknya and elsewhere - Russia commenced the building of second and third lines of fortifications closer to the line of combat, most likely in preparation for a counter offensive that will push Ukraine out of Russia.

This situation, Dima notes, is very different to that of the Donbass where Russian forces have broken through - or are breaking through - Ukrainian lines of fortification but where there is no evidence that Ukraine is constructing new fortifications further to the west. The only real line of fortification is the Dnieper.

Russian advances in the Donbass are growing increasingly dramatic. Russia is preparing a full scale offensive on Vuhledar, both from the northeast - where it has now taken the entire settlement of Kostyantynivka - and from the town of Pavlivka which is under Russian control to the south of Vuhledar.

Once before - I believe in the fall of 2022 - Russia was poised to take Vuhledar but was at that time repelled.

Russia is now in a far stronger position, having taken, as just noted, Kostyantynivka, and also established control of the supply highway of T05-24, especially close to Vodiane, as well as the mine and landfill in that area. The T05-24 runs to Kostyantynivksa, and also Russia is establishing control over sections of the highway as it runs from Kostyantynivka to Pobieda, to the north of which - close to Avdiivka - Russian mostly has control anyway. In the meantime, from Pavlivka, Russian forces (now north of the Kashlshach river) are heading westwards towards the settlement of Prechystivka (north of Russian-held Novomaioske). This entire area has been under Russian fire for the past three months. If Vuhledar falls, Russia will likely continue westwards to Bohoiavlenka.

In the Pokrovsk area, Russia is in the process of taking all the territory that incorporates Marynivka, Mykhailivka, Memrck, Lisivka and, most significant, Selydove. Russia is increasingly taking minefields and landfills which previously had seemed likely impediments to their advance. These include the “Russia” minefield immediately north of Mykhailivka and east of Selydove. To the north, Russia is reported to have taken control of over 80% of Hrodivka; to have taken most of Novohrodivka and the Novohrodivka mine sector 1, as well as capturing Korochenko mine and its landfill, and landfills to the west of Krutyi Yar. Russian forces have also entered the south of Myrnohrad which is essentially a suburb of Pokrovsk.

There are some significant Russian advances in the area of Niu York, Toretsk and Druzhba (of which it controls 80%). Russian attention is now turning westwards from Niu-York towards Penteleimonivka. Near Siversk, Russia is subjecting the settlement of Verkhnokamianske to intense fire. In Kupyansk, Russian forces have taken Stelmakhivka, and turning their attention westwards to Lozovo. A few kilometers north of Kupyansk city, Russia has at last seized control of much of Synkivka, probably in preparation for an assault on Kupyansk itself.

European Misfortunes

One immediate benefit to the US of its proxy war with Russia over Ukraine is that its European poodles have been diminished economically into greater dependence on the USA. All without a shred of necessity and with no relevance whatsover to their real national interests. This has been particularly true of Germany which, as a consequence of its own complicit compliance in the destruction - surely US orchestrated and in line with Biden’s stated threat against it ahead of the SMO in 2022 - of Nord Stream, its principal source of cheap Russian oil and gas.

The result has been recession and de-industrialization. Earlier this month, the German Finance Ministry proposed to end all additional military aid to Ukraine due to budget constraints. The German move, controversial and still contested inside Germany, is summarized by Ben Aris for Intellinews, as limiting new funding for Ukraine's military needs to the aid packages that have already been announced. No additional funds will be allocated for the coming years.

A US package of $61 billion was approved last April. The EU approved a four-year €50bn support package in February. A proposed $50bn loan, agreed by the G7 countries in July, is to be serviced by interest payments from the $300bn of frozen Central Bank of Russia (CBR). But this is still in legal jeopardy and threatens the Western finance industry with a pull-out of Global South deposits. Even if the scheme proves workable, no money from it would be available until towards the end of 2024. Germany has declined to be part of the scheme, citing the fact that Germany has already contributed €37bn and is already the biggest contributor to the four-year €50bn package agreed at the start of this year.

Aris notes that Ukraine, with a $12 billion deficit already, is proposing a budget that presumes a further $43bn deficit. The Ministry of Finance forecasts receipt of $37bn this year from international donors, increasingly in the form of loans. In short, Ukraine is not the most reliable of debtors, to say the least.

“Ukraine has already technically defaulted on its outstanding Eurobonds, after it was unable to start repayments at the start of August and was forced to restructure the debt, giving investors a 60% haircut, but offering them potentially lucrative GDP warrants as compensation. Under the deal some of the world’s biggest investors, including BlackRock, Amundi and Amia Capital, will write off a large part of $23.4bn by exchanging their bonds for new ones that will have maturities of as much as 12 years”.

Global South Alliances

A critical assessment by Andrey Sushtensov, for the prestigious Russian Vladai Discussion Club, of Russian-Iranian ties is relevant to the strength of Russian-Iranian ties in the face of a continuing US-Israeli push for a regional war in the Middle East. Sushentsov acknowledges an increasing rapprochement between Russia and Iran in the political, geostrategic, military, economic, trade and transport domains but considers that actual results have been limited.

He compares the situation with the alliance between Russia and China which was established as far back as 1997 with their acceptance of the principles of the Russian-Chinese joint declaration on a multipolar world and the formation of a new world order. These were founded on recognition of each other’s sovereignty, a pledge not to interfere in internal affairs, and to respect mutual interests.

They recognized that differences in social and political systems are not an obstacle to the development of full-fledged international relations - a view wholly at odds, I would note, from the pompous and hypocritical guardianship of the world order by the neoliberal West.

While there is no absolute unity of interests between Russia and China, says Sushentsov, there is a high level of correlation. Areas of difference may be found in China’s position on Ukraine, and on attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, but there is growing equivalence of interest in their relations with the US. The strategic policies of the US and China are now in complete opposition, says Shushentsov, a circumstance that is common to China, Iran and Russia even though all these countries are self-sufficient, autonomous states who experience no compulsion to crush other states - unlike the US which has, in effect, applied a triple containment policy toward each of them.

Why is the objective process of forming polycentricity so dangerous for the United States? Multipolarity, or polycentricity, involves a huge redistribution of financial and economic power away from the United States and Western countries. This is inevitable.

Western unity is based on a single normative framework whose fundamental basis is Christisan Protestantism (Weber’s “protestant ethic”). No such ideological bubble is to be found in the BRICS.

Could there be one? Should there be one? Sushentsov remarks that the prevailing value system in Iran prioritizes sovereignty and human dignity above economics. This creates a certain distance between business-oriented Russian delegations and their Iranian hosts, despite the important substance of such visits whose focus ranges from the construction of a nuclear power plant, the implementation of the North-South transport  corridor, the deepening of military-technical cooperation, and the formation of a financial system which is not subject to sanctions.

”What could serve as the intangible basis of trust in relations between Russia and Iran? This is a very subtle and deep question that affects relations between powers that have their own civilizational path. I believe that finding the answer to this key question will allow us to move faster towards establishing higher quality Russian-Iranian relations and improve the nature of the international system, which we strive to make polycentric”.

The Growing Likelihood of Nuclear War

There has been a recent development of what one might call “nuclear alarmism,” albeit very justified, in view of developments in Ukraine especially, where Ukraine recklessly attacks nuclear power plants and in which leading policy makers in Moscow, Brussels and Washington frequently refer to the possible use of “tactical” nuclear weapons.

Writing for Global Research, Drago Bosnic considers that Washington is primarily responsible for creating the most dangerous strategic situation the world has ever seen. America is the only country on Earth that has a plan to wage a simultaneous nuclear war with three nuclear-armed states – Russia, China and North Korea.

While Russia’s strategic arsenal is still considered the primary threat to America, the new nuclear strategy places significant emphasis on China. The US military projects that Beijing’s nuclear arsenal could grow from around 500 warheads to 1,500 by 2035 requiring Beijing to triple its current thermonuclear arsenal.

The US is already in possession of exactly 5,044 warheads, 1,419 of which are deployed, while Russia has 5,580, with 1,549 deployed.

The New START treaty - the sole remaining arms control agreement between Moscow and Washington DC - is due to expire in 2026. START has limited deployed warheads to 1,550 in both countries, which is why more than 70% of their arsenals are effectively dormant. In response to US antagonism to North Korea, North Korea has entered a military alliance with Russia, resulting in the effective unification of their strategic arsenals.

More generally, Drago writes, the US is pushing the world into tripwire alliances very similar to those that marked the lead up to World War One and World War Two.

The Inevitability of Inequality Under Capitalism

Yves Smith in Naked Capitalism takes on the myth that capitalism is the only path to wealth generation. That this is a myth was partly disproven by the ability of the communist Soviet Union to industrialize within a generation and, more spectacularly, by the experience of China, whose “capitalist turn” is a product not so much of capitalism as of the superordinate direction of the country under a communist leadership. None of this, of course, is beyond bitter dispute, but a tell-tale feature of capitalism is its hostility to equality:

“Capitalists and their supporters have almost always opposed measures designed to lessen or eliminate poverty. They blocked minimum wage laws often for many years, and when such laws were passed, they blocked raising the minimums (as they have done in the United States since 2009). Capitalists similarly opposed laws outlawing or limiting child labor, reducing the length of the working day, providing unemployment compensation, establishing government pension systems such as Social Security, providing a national health insurance system, challenging gender and racial discrimination against women and people of color, or providing a universal basic income. Capitalists have led opposition to progressive tax systems, occupational safety and health systems, and free universal education from preschool through university. Capitalists have opposed unions for the last 150 years and likewise restricted collective bargaining for large classes of workers. They have opposed socialist, communist, and anarchist organizations aimed at organizing the poor to demand relief from poverty…

“Modern capitalism has now accumulated around 100 individuals in the world who together own more wealth than the bottom half of this planet’s population (over 3.5 billion people). Those hundred richest people’s financial decisions have as much influence over how the world’s resources are used as the financial decisions of 3.5 billion, the poorest half of this planet’s population. That is why the poor die early in a world of modern medicine, suffer from diseases that we know how to cure, starve when we produce more than enough food, lack education when we have plenty of teachers, and experience so much more tragedy. Is this what reducing poverty looks like?

“Crediting capitalism for poverty reduction is another myth. Poverty was reduced by the poor’s struggle against a poverty reproduced systemically by capitalism and capitalists. Moreover, the poor’s battles were often aided by militant working-class organizations, including pointedly anti-capitalist organizations.”

The Culpability of Capitalist Property Relations

The underlying mechanisms of structured inequality are in part explained by Nick Beams, writing for World Socialist Web Site with reference to the crippling effects of debt repayments on a wide range of lower-income and developing counties. Finance capital, he notes, “is reaping benefits as it sucks in money like a giant vacuum cleaner.”

Recent IMF figures show that the median low-income country is spending over twice as much on debt service to foreign creditors as a share of revenue than it did 10 years ago—roughly 14 percent at the end of 2023 from 6 percent 10 years earlier.” For some countries the proportion is much higher, ranging up to 25 percent. The total debt service for low-income countries and certain middle-income nations was estimated to be $185 billion when combined with domestic debt repayments, higher, on average, than their combined public spending on health, education and infrastructure.

About 60 percent of all low-income countries were at high-risk debt distress or close to it. Some 57 percent of the world’s poorest countries, home to 2.4 billion people, are going to have to cut public spending by a combined $229 billion over the next five years. Low- and middle-income counties will be forced to pay $500 million dollars every day to meet debt and interest payments between the present and 2029.

Yet both the IMF and the World Bank keep applying the same old failed remedies: cut spending, sack public service workers, and pay debts despite the huge human costs. 27 loan programs negotiated with low-income countries, supposedly to provide a floor for debt payments, were actually a smokescreen for more austerity. All this is justified in terms of capitalist property relations.

It would take only 3 percent of G7 military spending to eradicate global hunger and solve the debt crisis.