A Head to Fall (UpDate)
A lugubriuous mood has descended upon America’s Thanksgiving holiday. It is crystal clear that the UNSC’s backing for Trump’s “ceasefire” in Gaza has done very little to stop the killing of Palestinians, that the IDF continues to occupy over half of Gaza, that the future of Palestinians on the West Bank is bleak, that there is no meaningful opposition to Israel anywhere, while in Lebanon and Syria obnoxious Israeli killings continue on a daily basis with impunity. The UN and the International Court of Justice are toothless tigers that offer little by way of substantial, actual aid. There is little comfort to be taken from the continuing survival of (Sunni) Hamas and (Shia) Hezbollah.
The vulnerability of Iran to another attack by the US and Israel is made worse by the successful agreement brokered by the US in August 2025 for a strategic transit corridor between Armenia and Azerbaijan. This will link Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan in Armenia. Under the agreement, the US would sublease the land to a consortium that will develop rail, oil, gas, and fiber optic lines, as well as possible electricity transmission, along the 21 mile corridor. This gives the US further strategic advantage on the northern border of Iran. Tehran, meanwhile, is plagued with devastating drought and pollution and crop failure.
Without any legal right, the US has effectively closed Venezuelan airspace, very likely in preparation for an invasion on the dubious pretext that Venezuela is a major route for the flow of illicit drugs to the US. It isn’t and even if it was, an invasion would not be a legal response. A legal response would also require the consent of Congress, which has not been sought. The US continues to fire on and destroy small boats and their occupants off the coast of Venezuela, showing no evidence these vessels actually carry drugs, or that the drugs are destined for the US (they seem too small to carry the necessary gasoline to carry them that far) or for why the suspected boats are not simply detained and searched. This is not a war on drugs by the US; it is a war for regime change, the purpose of which is to put in power the oligarch class represented by Nobel “peace prize” winner Maria Corina Machado - whose candidacy for this totally discredited piece of propaganda paper was nominated by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The reason why the US wants the oligarch class in power in Venezuela is because the US is always opposed to socialism. This is because socialist governments generally operate with a view to improving the lives of the majority of citizens and making it difficult for the US to manipulate them through bribery and corruption. In this case the bribery and corruption is intended to secure a pliable government in Venezuela that, as Machado has pathetically promised, will put Venezuelan mineral wealth, principally its oil wealth, at the disposal of US capitalists and the fossil fuel industry which is intent on destroying the planet.
The economic problems of Venezuela that have precipitated massive migration into the US in recent years are the direct result of US meddling in Venezuelan affairs, the effects of US sanctions on Venezuela and the Maduro governments, and US support for the oligarchic class extending even to US recognition as “presidents” of Veneuzuela of members of the oligarchic class who clearly are no such thing.
In Ukraine, the resignation of Zelenskiy’s right hand man (perhaps even his minder or controller on behalf of…..neo-Nazi sponsors? MI6? French intelligence?), Andriy Yerkmak, under pressure from the country’s anti-corruption agencies (even though the European Union last week counselled them to back off) is widely considered to have rendered Zelenskiy’s position very vulnerable to American pressure on Ukraine to make territorial concessions to Russia. As I have many times pointed out, corruption in Ukraine has been endemic since the collapse of the Soviet Union, and almost certainly grew much worse under the Western-instigated coup of 2014 which criminalized the country’s major political party.
The anti-corruption agencies, until recently financed by US money, did not have to wait this long. Until now they have not brought a single case of corruption to successful fruition. That all of a sudden heads are rolling at the mere threat of a search must surely be attributable to either international or domestic sources of opposition to the current regime, or both.
A Ukrainian delegation to Washington may arrive this week under the leadership of intelligence chief Budanov in place of Yermak, presumably to talk about Washington’s 28-point plan (which is the only plan, or framework, that Russia has indicated could be suitable as a basis for further discussion even though at the time of writing this framework has not formally been presented to Russia). Following discussions between Ukrainian representatives and the Trump administration early this week, it has been reported that Witkoff, Rubio and Kushner may fly to Moscow for further discussions. In the meantime, Putin has indicated that Russia will not retreat from its current demands as laid out by him in June 2024 (“Istanbul Plus”). As I have many times repeated, far from these terms being “maximalist,” as Western politicians and media like to claim, they fall considerably short of what Russia could now gain, fairly easily, by military force.
Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries and on two Russian tankers in the Black Sea said to be part of Russia’s “shadow fleet” (i.e. have committed the terrible injury to British financial interests of not being insured by Lloyds of London, because Britain has boycotted ships carrying Russian oil) provoked another major Russian drone and missile attack across Ukraine. The Ukrainian attacks may be intended as an attempt to soften Russia up in advance of the arrival of the Ukrainian delegation to Washington at a time that Ukraine has very little leverage otherwise. They are taken quite seriously by Dima of the Military Summary Channel who worries about significant impacts on Russian oil supplies and the corresponding impact on State revenues; but other sources barely comment on this.
Indeed the whole subject of whether the Russian economy is really being hit by sanctions, and is really being punished by the war, is far more controversial than anything one is allowed to read in Western media (least of all, incidentally, in The Bell). Even the assertion that India, under pressure from Trump, is really cancelling or significantly reducing its orders for Russian oil may be untrue: the upcoming visit of Putin to India (December 4-5) may provide an occasion for more reliable assessments as to what is really going on. In the past, during this war, it has nearly always transpired that Western assertions of Russian economic weakness or of its economy’s vulnerability to Ukrainian and Western attacks, turn out to be grossly exaggerated or false.
Potential scenarios of the discussions we can expect to take place over the next few days include: (1) a kow-towing by Zelenskiy to the US and to Russia that would lead to the implementation of Istanbul Plus, with Europe (now seemingly sidelined by the US, following the foolish European 21-point plan riposte to the American 28-point framework) falling into line, probably after new elections so as to ensure that the signatories to the final agreement are legitimate in Russian eyes; (2) a refusal by Zelenskiy to make concessions, guaranteeing a continuation of the conflict, with the ever more active participation of (an almost bankrupt) Europe but with the US adopting a more detached position than up until now; or (3) Zelenskiy stands down, rather than face an investigation by the anti-corruption agencies, precipitating new elections and a new regime that would be more amenable to agreeing a settlement with Russia, one that would approximate to Putin’s Istanbul Plus conditions of June 2024. This could even extend to Zelenskiy and members of the current Kiev gang being charged and tried by Russia.
A “settlement” in Ukraine will free up the US to attend with greater urgency to its other fronts in its war to sustain US global hegemony: currently Venezuela, Iran and Taiwan. Two of these are major oil producing countries of considerable interest to China and one is of existential political importance to China. In brief, an end to hostilities over Ukraine will exacerbate the race to war with China.