A CIA War Ongoing

CIA Invades Russia

Increasingly, wherever one looks amidst either burning conflagrations or the dying embers of US-manufcatured world crises we see the reckless, bloodied hand of the unaccountable US Intelligence+Secret Army, the CIA, one of the principal but certainly not the only factor that requires us to conclude that for a very long time the US has been an elite-managed corporoplutocracy, nothing to do with democracy except in a Hollywoodized mass-deception sense. In Ukraine we have seen long seen weird alliances between the CIA and Ukrainian Banderites following World War II as the US cashed in easy supply of former fascists for the pursuit of its new war against the Soviet Union, CIA involvement in the Orange Revolution in 2014 (Russian nationalists claim that the involvement of American Ukrainians among Ukrainian fascists as indicative of this), and 2014 (Oliver Stone’s interviews with leading Ukrainians of the time of Maidan led him to conclude that foreign elements involved in the shootings of protesters and other atrocities were introduced by pro-Western factions-- with CIA fingerprints on it).

The recent NYT revelations by Adam Entous and Michael Schwirtz (CIA in Ukraine) talk of 12-14 CIA stations set up in collaboration with Ukrainian intelligence (SBU) from at least 2014, close to the borders with Russia. Scott Ritter has recently explored what he considers the likely role of the CIA in supposed rogue Russian or Ukrainian militia invasions of Russia territory. The first swarm of these took place in March and April 2023 and were conducted by the RDK (see below). A third, in May 2023, coincided with and may have been retaliation for of distraction from, the fall of Bakmut to the Wagner group. In the following month, Wagner’s founding head, Prigozhin, staged an insurrection inside Russia. Ritter cites information that Prigozhin had been in frequent contact with the Ukrainian GUR in the months leading up to his insurrection. The Biden administration had foreknowledge of the insurrection, suggesting therefore, that the CIA also did. Many times during the past two years, the CIA director William Burns has been involved in supposedly behind-the-scenes negotiations with both Ukrainian and Russian figures.

The most recent attacks in Kursk and Belgorod areas were intended to disrupt the Russian presidential election by creating an atmosphere of weakness around Putin in the hope that he would lose legitimacy. The first one or two of these attacks a week ago were soundly repulsed, but Ukraine continues with this campaign and, as of yesterday, appears to have sustained a presence in at least two villages on Russian territory.

We should note, before proceeding, that others have said that Ukraine intended to seize a Russian nuclear facility in order to acquire blackmailing leverage over Moscow. Or, more simply, Ukraine was looking, as has been customary with Ukrainian strategy since the beginning, for PR advantages that could distract the attention of the world from Ukrainian losses on the battlefield (mainly Mariupol, Lysychansk, Bakhmut and Avdievka and still ongoing) and persuade the US, in particular, and Europe, to cough up more money. None of its major aims was realized. The discrediting of Putin’s government with an eye to his removal from power has been a goal of the CIA since 2005, when the CIA, together with British intelligence, began actively working to create viable political opposition movements inside Russia

Ritter has identified the main culprit of the recent Ukrainian invasions as a network of three Russian paramilitary organizations working under the auspices of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, or GUR.

These organizations were the Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK), the Freedom of Russian Legion (LSR), and the Siberia Battalion. All three of these organizations are controlled by the GUR. The involvement of the GUR in organizing, training, equipping, and directing these forces, Ritter argues, makes their attack on Russian soil a direct extension of the proxy war between Russia and the West. CIA involvement can be inferred, he says, from the agency’s extensive previous collaboration with and penetration of the GUR, which makes it unlikely the CIA did not contribute to planning the attacks in some way. The presence of high-end U.S. military equipment, including M-2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs), points to a direct US role.

The political mission of election disruption has been an objective of the CIA in Russia at least since 2005, when, Ritter relates, the CIA, together with British intelligence, began actively working to create viable political opposition movements inside Russia. In the lead up to Russia’s SMO in 2022, the CIA expanded its relationship with the GUR to include specialized training provided by members of the Ground Division of the CIA’s Special Activities Group, responsible for covert paramilitary operations, that had an anti-insurgency character.

Ritter recalls how, after the SMO had begun, ethnic Russians who had served since 2014 within the ranks of the neo-Nazi, Ukrainian nationalist, paramilitary organization known as the Azov Regiment organized themselves into a separate organization known as the Russian Volunteer Corps, or RDK. This was modelled on an organization, the Russian Liberation Army, established by the Nazis in 1942. A second ethnic Russian military unit, created in the aftermath of the SMO, is comprised primarily of Russian military defectors and prisoners of war and known as the Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR), it consists of several hundred soldiers organized into two battalions. The LSR operates as part of the International Legion of the Ukrainian Territorial Army but is controlled by the GUR. The third ethnic Russian military unit operating is the so-called Siberian Battalion, composed of ethnic Russians and non-Russian ethnicities from the Siberian territories of the Russian Federation.

The GRU forces involved in the invasions prior to Putin’s successful reelection a few days ago numbered around 2,500 men, and were supported by at least 35 tanks and scores of armored vehicles, including a significant number of US-supplied M-2 Bradley IFVs.

The Battlefields

Dima of the Military Summary Channel yesterday reported that the struggles in Belgorod were not over, but that clashes between Russian and Ukrainian forces were still occurring in and around the border village of Kozinka. Ukrainian forces penetrated quite far into the village, on Russian territory, and damaged a Russian armored personnel carrier. It looked as though these Ukrainian forces would dig in more deeply. Ukraine is also taking steps towards establishing a presence further south in the village of Nekhoteyevka where a Ukrainian ground operation can be anticipated.

Today, March 20, Dima reports that the Ukrainian foothold in this area is increasing and that Russia is restricting access to this area from the border area around Kozinka to a line that runs through Grayvoron. The Russian MoD claims to have “fully mopped up” the Ukrainian presence in Kozinka and that Ukraine lost “up to” 650 personnel in this operation, 2 armored fighting vehicles and two Czech MLRS combat vehicles.

Dima is skeptical about these MoD reports and is reminded of the Krynky foothold in Kherson a few months ago when MoD reports seemed forever too optimistic (although ultimately Ukrainian forces were thrown out of Krynky back across the Dnioepr). The RDK forces (see above) include Romanian mercenaries. They seem to have lots of weapons, probably saved over some period of time in preparation for this attack.

Russian forces meanwhile are escalating their attacks in the northern Kupyansk direction, bombing locations such as Vovchansk and Vilcha with a possible view to proceeding with a ground operation from Russia against Ukrainian settlements along two highways. These would take in Kolodiaz, Pechenihy, Velykyi, Artemivka, Burluk and Husynke. Ukraine continues to evacuate civilians from many settlements in this area. It would seem that something major might happen here very soon, but one should take into account that the whole Lyman, Kupyansk, Kharkiv area is reportedly hosting a Ukrainian army concentration of up to 100,000 to 150,000 men, almost half of its combat force.

Further south in the Kupyansk area, Russia has made a small advance beyond the village of Tabaivka and, further south still, is still bombing Ukrainian positions in Bilohorivka before launching an anticipated ground operation.

In the south Lyman area, the village of Terny (and the important road and river connections on which it sits) appears ever more vulnerable to Russian advance and Russia may indeed have reached the outskirts of the village while also suffering counterattacks from Ukrainian forces. The distance between the village and the nearest treeline controlled by Russian forces is 750 meters. To the south, Seversk is also looking increasingly vulnerable.

In the direction of Bakhmut, north of Soledar, Russian forces have been making headway east of Mykolaivka and near Rozdolivka. Russia has not made further progress in Ivanivska: Ukraine still has command over the hill to the north which impedes Russian movement into the central and western parts of the community. Russia is conducting very powerful FAB strikes on Ukrainian concentrations of force near Chasiv Yar. Russia continues to make headway along the railways close to Andriivka. Near to Oleksandropil, Russia is preparing to attack Toretsky and the village of New York (yes, New York!).

In the Avdievka region, Russia has established complete control over Orlivka and Tonenke. Ukrainian troops are withdrawing. Ukraine is still counterattacking in the center of Berdychi.

To the west, Russia has increased FPV attacks on Umanske: Ukraine has lost the opportunity to use this area as a focus for reconcentration of their forces. West of Marinka the Ukrainian 59th brigade has lost combat capability and there have been Ukrainian surrenders in the direction of Maksymilianivka. The settlement of Pervomaiske to the south is close to Russian control. Much of Krasnohorivka remains in the grey area where Russia is increasing the pressure along the railway. The fall of Pervomaiske will open the way to stronger Russian presence in Krasnohorivka and promote its advance further west towards Kurakhove. Russia accepted the surrender of 18 Ukrainian troops near Heorhiivka.

Russian forces near Solodke have encountered Ukrainian resistance. There are no reports of further activity in Novomykhailivka, or in the Vremevka Ledge, but Russia is putting pressure on Malyniivka to the west. A bit further west, at Huliaipole, Russia is also increassing the pressure. In the Roboyne salient, Russian forces are moving west from Verbove towards Robotyne.

Using electronic interception, Russia today downed a US MQ Reaper drone in West Poland near the Kaliningrad border. Dima reports that Ukraine has lost the equivalent through corruption of enough resource to supply it with 3,000 more drones. Ukraine expects to receive a fresh supply of shells, possibly up to 800,000, from the Czech republic. We shall see.

Not So Peaceful

Putin is reportedly preparing for a meeting in China with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, possibly concerning a possible peace negotiation with Ukraine preceding Xi Jinping’s subsequent, anticipated visit to France to meet with French president Macron. But China will not be attending the summit of the Copenhagen round initiated by Jake Sullivan in August last year and whose intention was mainly to promote the thoroughly unrealistic peace plan proposed by Zelenskiy (basically to return everything to how it was before the SMO and have Russia pay reparations).

Macron yesterday was reported by Russian intelligence to be preparing to send 2,000 French troops to Odessa. Paris has denied this. If so, such a measure would help compensate for Ukraine’s inability so far to pass a new mobilization law; it may be intended to release non-combatant Ukrainian troops for combat duty; it may be an act of revenge for the diminution of French influence in West Africa to the advantage of Russia. Notorious warhawk US Senator Lyndsey Graham yesterday visited Ukraine to urge the passing of the mobilization law and the lowering of the age of conscription to below 25.

An Azov commander is proposing that Ukrainian Brigades should take the authority to mobilize for themselves. No wonder that more than 1,000 young Ukrainians are fleeing Ukraine each day, sometimes paying significant sums of money for assistance in so doing. Since the beginning of this year, there have been 4,600 legal actions against deserters (16,000 in 2023). Another reason, therefore, why Western countries want to send forces to Ukraine: too many Ukrainians no long want to fight.

So far as Macron’s sending of French troops is concerned, Medvedev has in effect told France “to bring it on,” since there would be now no ambiguity over the status of French forces in Ukraine; the killings of French soldiers will be a good lesson, he says, to other European bumpkins who might be tempted to similar foolishness. France simply lacks sufficient force to make a difference on the Ukrainian battlefield.

Would the US intervene to save embattled European forces in Ukraine? While the US is making strong protestations of its commitment to Ukraine, the reality on the ground appears to be that the US is increasingly wanting to get out of Ukraine, and to force Europe to take care of itself. Europe could very easily take care of itself, and without initiating World War Three, but only with a new generation of much more intelligent leaders than any we have seen in recent years.

Putin’s visit to China within the next few weeks may also be related to Putin’s stated intention to shift the east Asian economic bloc more towards the BRICS and towards China’s Belt and Road initiative. Russia’s economy continues to look robust, while Europe’s looks ever bleaker. The US economy may start to fall apart in advance of the election, under the weight of increasing debt coupled with shaky inflation and tight monetary policy. Russia is working effectively to redress its demographic deficit and to improve social support for families, a topic which occupied a good deal of a major interview with Putin last week; Russia’s birth rate is already better than that of many European countries.

Palestine

There are no encouraging signs of a meaningful ceasefire in Gaza or on the West Bank. The most terrible atrocities committed by Israeli forces against Palestinians are reported, often videographed, sometimes several, each day. Realist politics will explain why it is in nobody’s interest to interfere (e.g. the reluctance of countries like Egypt, Jordan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia can be explained in terms of elites frightened by what they think might happen if they unleashed their own “Arab Streets,” and even, more simply, as Jeffrey Sachs attempted to explain to Judge Napolitano earlier today, by a profound dislike and horror of war and worry about the costs of war), but not why the USA finds itself unable to halt the genocide by stopping its flow of arms in support of Israel, or by calling in the UNSC for an unconditional ceasefire in advance of the IDF’s ground operation against Rafah, or why a country like Germany finds itself similarly and strangely tied to the Israeli lobby.

Actually it is quite difficult to determine any rational reason for US support for Israel and particularly now that Israel is becoming an international pariah state. Certainly it is reasonable to invoke profound failures of leadership, even of mental capacity and moral turpitude. Biden’s “solution” - building a pier - turns out not to be his idea (it was put to him by Netanyahu), it is the slowest and least efficient means of getting aid to the starving hundreds of thousands in Gaza, and is probably not intended as a means of getting aid to Gaza at all, but, as Chris Hedges argues this morning, as a suitable location for the forced expuslion of Palestinians by ship.

History will not forgive this generation.