Escalating Ladders
This is a brief entry for the time being, given that I have a busy day. I will add to this later. I wanted to highlight a few important matters. First, is confirmation of passage of the mobilization law in Ukraine, although this still awaits the signature of Zelenskiy. Assuming that he does sign off on it, we can expect implementation of the new law within a month. So far as I understand, the law does not fix on the number of people who will be mobilized.
Mobilization involves major costs for Ukraine, including the costs of housing, training and arming its new recruits, as well as the cost to the economy of losing men. At the moment Ukraine is running short of funds, given the delay in the $61 billion aid package that has yet to be presented to the floor of the House of Representatives by Speaker Mike Johnson and whose passage looks a little less likely in view of a disciplined House Republican resistance that has just occurred to the extension of a surveillance law that enables spying of US citizens. There is weaponry coming to Ukraine through purchases as opposed to aid; the purchases in turn will require loans; in the absence of US support at the moment either for loans or for aid, purchase money will depend on other sources of aid, including the European Union which is already committed to $20 billion a year for the next five years; there are also drubs and drabs of money coming in from such sources as the IMF and World Bank.
If mobilization is voted through, then it would seem that Ukraine is committed to continuing the war for the forseeable future. While it is currently being trounced overall by Russian forces along the combat lines, there are areas where it is showing signs of success, including successful Ukrainian attacks in the direction of Russian-held Kremmina, and successful hits on the battlefields by HIMARS missiles and JDAM bombs, which are unguided ordnanace that has been converted to precision-guided bombs. Use of these suggests that the Ukrainian Air Force still has a slither of life left in it. Russia meantime has launched a severe new swarm of bombs, missiles and drones on energy facilities in both East and West Ukraine (over 40 of which Ukraine says it has shot down 18). The targets have included a major source of thermal power for Kiev and power plants serving Lviv. Russia looks set to recovery of settlements like Robotyne, Urozhaine, Klishchiivka and Andriekva that it lost control of during the 2023 Ukrainian counteroffensive (not so useless as pro-Russian supporters like to claim it was), and is showing signs of securing control over Kharkiv, Kupyansk, Terny, Berdychi, , Ocheretyne, Karamik, Umanske, Naitilive, and other settlements west of Tonenke (itself, west of Russian-controlled Adviivkaa), Pervomaiske, Bilohorivka, Krasnohorivka, Bohdanivka, Ivanske and Chasiv YarSiversk, and Vuhledar.
We must also anticipate proximity to an Iranian strike on Israeli targets, in retaliation for Israel’s strike on an Iranian consulate in Damascus a few days ago. This could signal a major escalation by Israel against Iran. The USA is proving itself to be just as ineffective if not deeply complicit over Iran as it is over Gaza and the Zionist Greater Israel project underlining how far Biden is a tool and a dupe for Israel. Such escalation will pull in Russia and perhaps China; it will lead to the closure of the Gulf of Hormuz, havoc to international trade, perhaps to toppling of Egypt’s military regime and to the Jordanian government, and possibly a switch of allegiance eastwards of Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. Even Turkey may now be forced to reveal its hand.
(To Be Further Developed)